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article imageDemographics key to GOP resurgence in California Special

By Ben Morris     Oct 30, 2014 in Politics
Sacramento - As Californians prepare to go to the polls, the Democrats will once again rule the state, but with anger towards big government and the GOP concentrating on demographics, the Democratic dominance could soon be ending.
In an article titled Big Government is Killing California, Steven Greenhut says California is, “a place that was known for its entrepreneurial spirit and open culture. But it has been turned into a regulatory and tax nightmare.” Greenhut noted statistics from a demographer that found more people have moved out of California, than have moved in from other states, the past two decades.
The journalist based in Northern California was born in Philadelphia and moved to the state in the late nineties after a short run in small town Ohio. He loves the natural beauty that draws many into California, but according to discussions he has with neighbors, they no longer see a future living in California.
“The regulatory state is crushing enterprise, and there is so little that you can do here without getting government approval,” said Greenhut in a phone interview from outside Sacramento. He added people are, “fleeing the state, they’re fleeing the crushing tax burdens, they’re fleeing regulations and they are fleeing the sense that California doesn’t want them.”
In a ranking posted by CNN Money, California was placed just ahead of Washington D.C and New Jersey as the states job creators should avoid. In another ranking, the Tax Foundation showed California placed tenth in corporate rates. Chief Executive went further by naming California the state the worst to do business in for the tenth year in the row.
California's unemployment rate is higher than the national average, and it can take up to two years to open a restaurant due to the permits a businessman must get. The business climate has caused many to move operations to Texas. In 2013, 5.2 percent fewer businesses existed in California compared to the year before. As the business owners flee for greener pastures, the government of California continues to be controlled by Democrats who passed those bills, and there is nothing on the horizon to believe Democrats will lose control in California.
California - Emigration to Other States | FindTheBest
According to various polls, Governor Jerry Brown has anywhere from a 16 to 21 point lead over Republican challenger Neel Kashkari. The lead is not surprising considering the results of the 2012 election that brought the Democrats a two third majority in both houses of government. The majority control has been explained by experts to be based primarily on demographics.
Allan Hoffenblum who helped run GOP elections, told Time back in 2012,"California Republicans are becoming the white man’s party," in a state with a prominent Latino population that hovers close to 40 percent. Of those Hispanics likely to vote, 59 percent are Democrat, while only 18 percent are Republican.
"The Republicans shot themselves in the foot," said Ted Lempert, president of the advocacy group Children Now, who spent two separate stints in the California State Assembly between 1988 and 2000. While in office, Lempert noticed a shift in support due to social issues that divided the GOP from Californians. A state that is the birthplace of Nixon has been completely disenfranchised from the GOP, and according to Lembert, the Democrats have run better campaigns.
"The Democrats have been a lot smarter and their policies have attracted a wider net of voters,"said Lempert, who noted, "The Democrats have been more at step with the demographics of the state." With a state Republican Party unable to capture the vote of a strong ethnic group, there appears to be a big mountain for the party to climb, but there may be hope.
In a poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, just 29 percent of Californians have a favorable view of Republicans, in that same poll, favorably of the Democrats was below 50 percent. The political trends have shifted, with voters losing affiliation with the major parties. In the early 60s, nearly 60 percent of voters had D’s next to their names, and only 3 percent claimed to be independents. 40 years later, both parties have lost numbers, and now more than 20 percent of Californians claim to be independent.
The propensity of Californian independents voting Democrat could be changing, and prospects for the GOP in the state could soon change. As noted by The Wall Street Journal, Kashkari who trails in polls by double digits to Gov. Brown has only a three-point deficit among independents. The voter with no political affiliation has become more friendly to the Republican Party after nominating a man who supports same sex marriage, is pro choice and has questions about the war on drugs.
”Our party has hit the rocks, and it’s human nature for some people to head for the lifeboats. But I’m trying to right the ship and get the ship moving again,” Kashkari is quoted as say in the Los Angelas Times. One political expert summed up Kashkari`s campaigning by the prospects for future GOP candidacies are on on the right track.
“Neel has provided a blueprint for the GOP to speak to demographics it’s shunned for the last two decades — the same demographics needed to be competitive in California,” said strategist Matt David, a former employee of George W. Bush, and John McCain.
With Latino’s siding with the Democrats on many issues, and with independents leaving both major parties, those with expertise in California politics believe the GOP has no other choice except using demographics to their advantage.
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