Two of the three most recent polls show the Liberals still well in the lead but the third by EKOS shows the Liberals in virtually a tie with the Conservatives.
Up to yesterday October 15, the poll tracker averages show the Liberals still leading with 35.7 percent of the vote up marginally 0.1 percent from the last averages. The Conservatives are second at 31.1 the largest gain at 0.7 percent. The NDP is down marginally 0.2 percent at 23.6. The seat projections show the Liberals leading, gaining on average 135, and the Conservatives second with 118. The NDP are third with 83. The Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party each average one. The Liberals have a maximum of 173 but the Conservatives still have a larger maximum at 187. Each of these would see a majority government but are quite unlikely. For a majority, 170 seats are required.
The most recent EKOS poll was taken from October 12 to October 14. It shows the Conservatives at 32.6 percent, a gain of 2.7 percent from their last poll. The Liberals were at 33.5 percent, down 0.6 percent and the NDP in decline again losing 1.2 percent to 22.9 percent. The Liberal lead is a mere 0.9 percent. Even the most recent poll from Nanos shows the lead shrinking from 7.7 points to just 5.9.
The Nanos poll just ended on the 15th and is the most current. It shows the Conservatives at 30.6 percent, the Liberals at 36.5, and the NDP at 23.5. Nanos gives a regional breakdown as well. In the Atlantic provinces the Liberals are far ahead with 50.7 percent of the vote a higher level even than the Conservatives on the prairies. The NDP has 24.1, and the Conservatives 21.9.
Quebec is much more of a contest. The Liberals, at 31.3 percent, now have slightly more support than the NDP at 29.8 percent. The Conservatives at 17.4 percent are virtually in a tie with the Bloc Quebecois at 16.8. In Ontario, a key area with many seats, the Liberals have a commanding lead at 43.5 percent with the Conservatives 10 points back at 33.5 and the NDP far behind at 19.9. However, both the NDP and Conservative numbers represent recent gains. As expected, the three prairie provinces are “owned” by the Conservatives with 47.9 percent of the vote but the Liberals are far ahead of the NDP at 29.1 percent to only 18 percent for the NDP. British Columbia will be a hotly contested province with the Liberals in a slight lead with 31.4 percent compared to 30.3 for the Conservatives. The NDP are not far back at 27.1. The Green Party has 10.8 percent of the vote. Elizabeth May, the leader, is expected to win her seat again.
The most likely outcome of the election is a minority for the Conservatives or Liberals but nothing is for certain until at least late Monday night.
