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article imageAnother FiveThirtyEight poll shows Republicans taking Senate

By Larry Clifton     Aug 4, 2014 in Politics
Washington - The latest FiveThirtyEight poll published Monday once again shows Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections.
Consistent with its last poll, The FiveThirtyEight survey shows Republicans netting seven Senate seats, one more than required for Republicans to take over the Senate.
The poll shows that Pres. Obama continues to be a drag on Democrats in key Senate races, noting that the president has recently dropped a couple of points. Though FiveThirtyEight doesn’t show enthusiasm for Republicans to be as great as it was in 2010, most analysts agree the Republican-led House will likely remain a Republican bastion.
However, FiveThirtyEight polls consistantly show Democrats in the Senate may not be so lucky. While FiveThirtyEight does not describe its polling as indications of a Republican landslide in Senate races, the polling shows Republicans winning seven seats - which is more than enough to take the Senate.
Midterm elections generally benefit the party not occupying he White House, however a bigger problem for Democrats is that this year’s Senate races aren’t being held in reliable blue states sympathetic to Democrats. Conversely, many of this year’s Senate races are being conducted in states that gave Obama an average of just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.
In addition, more incumbent Democrats are up for reelection in 2014 than are Republicans.
While the FiveThirtyEight report is not calling 2014 a wave election like Democrats had in 2008. It is not altogether discounting that possibility for Republicans.
“It can be tempting, if you cover politics for a living, to check your calendar, see that it’s already August, and conclude that if there were a wave election coming we would have seen more signs of it by now. But political time is nonlinear and a lot of waves are late-breaking, especially in midterm years,” says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.
Silva reminds in today’s post that that “most forecasts issued at this point in the cycle would have considerably underestimated Republican gains in the House in 1994 or 2010, for instance, or Democratic gains in the Senate in 2006.”
Still, FiveThirtyEight is predicting the odds are approximately 60-40 that the Republicans will take control of the Senate from Democrats.
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