The new climate predictions issued by the WMO is a Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office and nine other countries, including Australia, the US, and China. It provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually.
The last five years has been the warmest five years on record, and the WMO says there is a 20 percent chance that temperatures will exceed the 1.5 C above 1850 to 1900 average in at least one of the next five years, reports CTV News Canada.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, countries have committed to keeping temperature rises “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing ways to curb temperatures to 1.5C in an effort to avoid the worst impacts of global warming, according to The Guardian.
And even though climate experts say that exceeding just one year with a temperature average above 1.5 degrees does not mean the targets have been breached, it does show how close the Earth is to the “tipping point.”
We face ⬆️ challenges to meet #ParisAgreement
2020-2024:
More than 20% chance that average global temperature will exceed 1.5°C in at least 1 year
~70% chance that 1 or more months will pass this thresholdOutlook by @metoffice and global partners pic.twitter.com/oL9LxjvkpS
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) July 9, 2020
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
The report does take into account natural variations as well as human influences on climate. However, the forecast models do not take into consideration changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols as a result of the coronavirus lockdown. Prof Taalas said the WMO had “repeatedly stressed” that the industrial and economic slowdown from Covid-19 was not a substitute for sustained and co-ordinated climate action.
“Whilst COVID-19 has caused a severe international health and economic crisis, failure to tackle climate change may threaten human well-being, ecosystems, and economies for centuries, Governments should use the opportunity to embrace climate action as part of recovery programs and ensure that we grow back better,” he said.
Looking at some of the highlights from the WMO report
1, Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past
2. There is a ~70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels.
3. Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer.
4. Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe.
5. In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean.
