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article imageTropical Storm Isaias has 80% chance of forming in Atlantic

By Karen Graham     Jul 27, 2020 in Environment
A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic has an 80 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-as) within the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The NHC has dubbed the depression Invest 92L, a protocol used to identify areas being watched for tropical development, and this particular one definitely bears watching, according to Weather.com.
The disturbance covers a broad area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Island in the Lesser Antilles. It started organizing this morning, according to the NHC, and while little has changed as of the 2:00 p.m. advisory, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development of a tropical depression or Tropical Storm over the next few days.
Invest 92L will continue to steer in a west-northwesterly direction at 15 to 20 mph over the next several days by the clockwise flow around a high-pressure system centered to its north. Regardless of its development, it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late Wednesday.
The system will be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday. These areas could see some rain and wind, but that will depend on the future track and intensity of this system, which is still uncertain. "Every model that I looked at today develops this area into some form of tropical system and turns it toward or north of Puerto Rico," CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
There is reason for concern with this system, and while it will take a few days for it to near land, it is tapping into the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. According to NOAA, seawater temperatures near Puerto Rico today are a warm 84.4°F/29.1°C. This means that the system could be encountering favorable conditions as it tracks west.
"Rarely do you see the convergence of models like you're seeing with this next storm," Myers said. "There's a consensus with this that the storm is going to do something and that it's going to get into that Bahamas area."
More about Atlantic Hurricane season', Tropical depression, Invest 92L, Isaias
 
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