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article imageNHC: 90 percent chance of Tropical cyclone within 48 hours

By Karen Graham     Aug 31, 2018 in Environment
A tropical wave located southeast of the Cape Verde Islands has a 90 percent chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its latest advisory.
In the National Hurricane Center's 2:00 p.m. EDT advisory, Potential Cyclone 6, a wave of rain bands and gusty winds is approaching the southern Cabo Verde Islands today. The system is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of 13 mph (20 mph). Environmental conditions are favorable for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone.
This forward motion is expected to speed up over the next three to four days. Based on the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to continue moving near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight.
At 2:00 p.m., the disturbance had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55kph) with a minimum central pressure of 1006 MB or 29.71 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.
Meteorologist and FEMA strategy Planner, Michael Lowery Tweeted there have only been two Septembers in modern history that haven't seen a hurricane develop in the Atlantic in September, and that was in 1968 and 1994. He tweets: "forecasting #PTC6 to be a hurricane by Sunday (Sep 2nd). The average number of Atlantic hurricanes in September is three."
Possible Hurricane Florence
As Digital Journal suggested on Wednesday,, a factor favoring development is the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, with sea-surface temperatures above average and with ample heat content. Coupled with less wind shear, this makes for a perfect scenario for a tropical storm.
Because of the ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and other environmental factors, forecasters give this Cape Verde system a 90 percent chance of further development into Hurricane Florence in the next 2 to 5 days.
There is another system, a lot closer to the U.S. Atlantic coast that bears watching. According to the NHC: "Disorganized cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough."
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NASA/NOAA
"This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. "
More about atlantic cyclone development, 90 percent, cyclone no 6, Hurricane, Environment
 
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