Using what is called an ensemble modeling approach, scientists were able to predict the extent of the cyanobacterial blooms on Lake Erie this year. In the context of severity, the bloom could measure 8.7 on the severity index with a range from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5.
Ensemble monitoring is simply the process of running two or more related, but different analytical models, in this case, using past data from Lake Erie algae blooms, and combining the results into a single spread of data. This method improves the accuracy of predictive analytics.
In the 2015 models, it was noted that after a relatively dry April and May, heavy rains in June produced a record nutrient discharge into the Maumee River, which runs through Toledo and northeastern Indiana. It is predicted that this will produce a more severe algae bloom.
The impact of cyanobacterial algae blooms on Lake Erie
Algae blooms on Lake Erie are costly for local and city governments who treat their drinking water. Swimmers are at risk in areas where the algae in concentrated, and it’s a nuisance to boaters. The algae bloom’s effects will vary in some locations because of the severity of the winds, with the peak occurring in September.
In the first week in August 2014, as reported in Digital Journal, over 400,000 Toledo residents were warned not to drink their water because toxins from the blue-green algae had turned up in the city’s water supply. It took over three days before the municipal water supply was deemed safe enough to drink. The 2014 algae bloom was given a 6.5 on the severity index, quite a bit lower than what is predicted this year.
“While this year’s toxic algae forecast for Lake Erie calls for a bloom larger than the one that shut down the Toledo area’s water supply last summer, bloom predictions–regardless of size–do not necessarily correlate with public health risk,” said University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Don Scavia, a member of the forecast team, as reported in Science News Online. “Local weather conditions, such as wind direction and water temperature, also play a role.”
Severity of the algae bloom forecast for 2015
“While we are forecasting a severe bloom, much of the lake will be fine most of the time. The bloom will develop from west to east in the Lake Erie Western Basin, beginning this month. It is important to note that these effects will vary with winds and will peak in September,” said Richard Stumpf, ecological forecasting applied research lead at NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science.
It should be noted that this year’s harmful algae bloom forecast for Lake Erie is only the fourth warning to be issued by NOAA since 2008, when the agency started producing Harmful Algae Blooms (HAB) bulletins for western Lake Erie. The HAB bulletins are published twice-weekly.
