The 8:00 p.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hurricane Dorian was located about 130 miles (210 kilometers) south of Charleston, South Carolina and 255 miles (410 kilometers) south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina.
The Category 2 storm is moving to the north-northwest at 8 mph (1`3 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph(175 kph). This is just one mph below being a Category 3 storm. However, Dorian will still have significant, damaging impacts near and along the Southeast coast. The worst wind impacts will occur within the hurricane’s eyewall, assuming any part of it affects land, which is still uncertain.
There is significant coastal flooding on Florida’s First Coast, including in St. Augustine, even as we head into a low tide. Some coastal flooding is also ongoing along the Georgia coast, according to Weather.com.
On the forecast track, Dorian will continue to move near the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia into Friday, delivering a siege of storm-surge flooding, high winds, and flooding rain. Dorian could then strike Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm this weekend.
The NHC says there will continue to be some fluctuations in strength, possibly tonight, followed by a slow weakening of the storm beginning Thursday through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 kilometers) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 kilometers). The minimum central pressure is now 959 mb (28.31 inches).
Beware of storm surge and heavy rains
Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge levels of 5 to 7 feet can be expected from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach South Carolina.
Forecasted 5-8ft storm surge bringing back memories of Hurricane Matthew in Georgetown, SC. At least one boat remains in the Sampit River which was unmoored during the 2016 storm. (Note: Flooding pic is from Matthew) @abc3340 @spann @ABCNews4 @wpdeabc15 @NWSCharlestonSC #Dorian pic.twitter.com/FTxyfu3EJ6
— Stephen Quinn (@StephenQ3340) September 4, 2019
Storm surge levels of from 4 to 7 feet can be expected from the Savannah River on up to Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. It is anticipated that the storm surge from Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads, should be 2 to 4 feet.
Just remember, surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast and can vary greatly over short distances.
The coastal Carolinas are forecast to see 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia could see as much as 3 to 6 inches of rainfall. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
On Saturday, Dorian may track close enough to bring a period of rain and some wind to southeastern New England before it quickly races toward parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later in the weekend.
