The big data analytics stem from the United Nations annual population survey, which both assesses the current global population and makes a forecast based on current population growth rates. The concern with the 2023 estimate, in Malthusian terms, is that the population is increasing at a faster rate than its means of subsistence.
The anticipated population growth will not be even, according to the United Nations figures. Over 50 percent of the global population growth, by 2050, will be in sub-Saharan Africa. This is because fertility rates are expected to persist at levels far greater than the rest of the world. The countries expected to see the highest population growth numbers are: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the U.S., Uganda and Indonesia. Of these countries, only the U.S. is outside of the typical growth region.
With these figures, CNBC reports that while India is currently the second most populous country (1.3 billion inhabitants), compared to China having a population of 1.4 billion; India’s population should surpass China’s by 2024.
In contrast, European countries, which have declining birth rates particularly in Eastern Europe, are expected to see population decreases unless the population numbers are boosted by immigration. Here, John Wilmoth, director of the UN’s population division, told The Guardian: “In some countries with low levels of fertility and ageing populations … a net inflow of migrants has been the primary source of population growth and in some cases has averted a decline in population size.”
Other statistics of interest are:
There are more men than women globally (102 men for every 100 women).
The numbers of people over 60 will exceed 1 billion in 2018.
The numbers over 60 will exceed 2 billion by 2050.
Children aged under 15 years account for one quarter of the global population.
The average (median) age of the world’s population is 30.
The report raises questions for governments and policy makers in terms of managing resources on the planet into the years ahead.
