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article imageBitcoin trading in a narrow range around the $3,600 level today

By Ken Hanly     Jan 16, 2019 in Technology
Bitcoin has not dropped further but is trading mostly sideways within a narrow range near the $3,600 level. It remains to be seen if Bitcoin will suffer another monthly loss this January as appears to be happening.
CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has his usual daily analysis of the price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) on CoinDesk. His article was last updated at 12:20 UTC on January 16. Godbole notes that BTC has sustained losses in January in the last four years. He thinks that another loss is in the cards for this year.
In 2015 BTC lost 32 percent of its value. In 2016 it was 14.6 percent. In 2017 it was a marginal .10 percent. In 2018 it lost a lot again at 26.64 percent according to data from CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index. Godbole claims the odds are stacked in favor of another decline for a fifth consecutive year this January.
BTC dropped 13 percent last week marking an end to the corrective bounce from the low of $3,122 last December. The sell-off strengthened the bearish signal of the downward sloping 10-week simply moving average (MA). A drop to the $3,122 in the next couple of weeks is possible.
If BTC is able to convincingly rise above the $3,768 level, the 21-day moving average, this would strengthen the case for a short-term bullish trend. As Godbole's article went to press BTC was trading at $3,611 down a mere 2 percent from its opening price at the beginning of the month at $3,689.
Chart analysis
The three-day chart shows that the Bitcoin price was unable to breach the 21-candle MA earlier in January thus strengthening the bearish outlook signaled by the downward sloping line. Added to this, the decline to $3,476, the January 13 low, had the effect of invalidating the bullish trend established by the outside reversal candle of December 20. This shows that the path of least resistance is downwards.
The 21-candle moving average shown on the daily chart had acted as a strong support but was breached on January 10. The average is now located at $3,768. Should prices cross this level this would weaken the bearish tendency. This would also increase the chances that BTC would be able to close off the month above the opening price of $3,689. The probability of a January loss for Bitcoin is also shown by the fact that BTC futures are trading below the spot price as indicated in another article by Godbole.
Godbole's outlook
Base on his technical analysis Godbole's view is: The odds of BTC extending its four-year January losing streak appear high currently. BTC risks falling to $3,122 in the near-term, having validated the bearish 10-week MA with a 13 percent drop last week. BTC could snap the losing streak if prices move above the 21-day SMA in the next couple of days.
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC was trading at $3,587 according to CoinDesk data. The high since then has been $3,662 with the low just $3,572. At 19:35 Central Standard TIme, BTC was just over the $3,600 mark at $3,607, a gain of .53 percent on the open or a mere $19. There is no clear movement up or down. Perhaps the price is consolidating prior to another drop. The trading range is less than one hundred dollars. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
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