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Tesla now producing over 1,000 Model 3s every week

Almost nine months ago, Tesla sold its first 30 Model 3s, with Elon Musk initially planning to manufacture 5,000 Model 3 units per month by the end of 2017. Unfortunately, that target has not been met. Several months back, Musk conceded Tesla was in the midst of “production hell.”

In the meantime, there are nearly half-a-million consumers around the country who have plunked down a $1,000 deposit, awaiting the affordable electric car. Not all these people will end up purchasing the Model 3, and some have already bought another brand, but still, we all want to know how the production line is going.

And because owners and would-be owners had similar concerns over Tesla Model S and Model X production schedules, many Tesla owners and fans created “VIN Trackers”. Basically, the trackers function as lists of observed vehicle serial numbers in cars seen in public, as detailed by Green Car Reports.

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NHTSA, Bloomberg


Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker
The Bloomberg Media Model 3 Tracker uses Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs) to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the Tesla plant in Fremont, California. The tracker actually relies on social media and direct communication with Tesla owners, along with the VINs.

The first method used by Bloomberg relies on tracking VINs that Tesla registers with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which registers every serial number so it can track and expedite vehicle recalls. The VIN system was standardized beginning in 1954 in order to prevent car theft.

By sending digital requests to the NHTSA, Bloomberg can get a picture of how many Model 3s have been registered at any given time. The VIN numbers between batch registrations are tracked, and Bloomberg uses the number of intervening days to estimate a production rate.

One of the limitations of this method is that automakers get VINs in large batches that anticipate coming production, which means that numbers will be assigned before a new car starts its journey down the assembly line. So there is no limit to the number of VINs Tesla might register in a batch.

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Tesla/Bloomberg


Bloomberg’s second method of acquiring data involves searching social media sites used by Tesla owners and fans, like Reddit. With all the people waiting for a Tesla Model 3, fans have been reporting Model 3 sightings on social media since back in 2017, and it has become a great source for tracking.

VINs are easily seen on vehicles today, usually visible beneath the windshield. Although this method has its limitations, by using VIN data gathered from social media and an added layer of self-reported VINs submitted directly to Bloomberg, they have come up with a fairly good estimate of the number of Models 3s being produced.

Bloomberg claims that Tesla has manufactured 7,341 Model 3s since production began last year. With respect to the current production rate, Bloomberg’s data reveals that it currently stands at about 1,025 units per week.

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We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of our dear friend Karen Graham, who served as Editor-at-Large at Digital Journal. She was 78 years old. Karen's view of what is happening in our world was colored by her love of history and how the past influences events taking place today. Her belief in humankind's part in the care of the planet and our environment has led her to focus on the need for action in dealing with climate change. It was said by Geoffrey C. Ward, "Journalism is merely history's first draft." Everyone who writes about what is happening today is indeed, writing a small part of our history.

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