Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

World

Turkish rate boost to lira fizzles out

-

Crisis action by the Turkish central bank doubling its key interest rate gave only brief relief to the lira which fell back as emerging markets faced a US monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

The Turkish decision was closely watched in emerging markets where the South African central bank followed with a half-point rise in its key rate.

The Turkish bank defied political pressure to double its key interest rate to 10.0 percent to attract funds and fight a run on the currency.

The increase was also a pre-emptive move against any tightening of US monetary policy, which could suck money out of emerging economies.

The lira leapt by about 3.0 percent overnight in response to the central bank's U-turn.

But during trading on Wednesday, the lira lost its gains. After the decision, it shot up to 2.17, but later was down to 2.25 by close of trade.

But it was still well above the record low of 2.39 to the dollar it reached at one point on Monday.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays an old Turkish Lira banknote at a news conferen...
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays an old Turkish Lira banknote at a news conference in Ankara on October 3, 2008
Adem Altan, AFP/File

The lira also slipped to 3.11 to the euro before recovering to 3.06.

The Istanbul stock exchange lost by 2.29 percent to 62,088.70 points.

Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Turkish bank providing a shot of confidence amid turmoil in emerging markets.

European stocks also rose, but fell back as the time approached for the US Federal Reserve central bank to say later if it will reduce further its huge stimulus to the US economy.

Analysts say policymakers in other emerging economies were closely watching the effects of the Turkish move.

South Africa's Reserve Bank followed Turkey by raising its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent, amid sustained pressure on the rand and rising inflation.

A board displays index rates at the Istanbul Stock Exchange in Istanbul on April 30  2007
A board displays index rates at the Istanbul Stock Exchange in Istanbul on April 30, 2007
Hocine Zaourar, AFP

The change of Turkish policy set the central bank in direct confrontation with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, already under pressure over a high-level corruption scandal.

Only hours before the decision he warned that the bank would be responsible for any ensuing slowdown in growth.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said that Erdogan's criticism of the bank was reflected in the fact that this morning's positive sentiment was "short-lived".

"Even allowing for that sentiment wasn't helped by comments from Turkish PM Erdogan who criticised the central bank's bold move, which would seem to suggest further problems ahead," he said.

Lira still vulnerable

Turkey's Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci speaks during a press conference in Ankara on Januar...
Turkey's Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci speaks during a press conference in Ankara on January 28, 2014
, AFP

But the bank went ahead, increasing its overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, the overnight borrowing rate from 3.5 percent to 8.0 percent, and the pivotal one-week repo rate to 10.0 percent from 4.5 percent.

Charles Movit, economist at IHS Global Insight, said the central bank opted for a "bold stance" that should convince the markets but warned that the political uncertainties over the sweeping corruption probe, coupled with global turmoil, could threaten the lira.

"The evolving political situation or volatility in global capital markets could undermine the lira again despite the central bank's new-found independence," he said.

London-based Capital Economics said the bank seemed finally to have accepted the "need for tighter policy" and suggested that the increase should bring some stability to Turkey's financial markets.

But it warned that the economy remained vulnerable.

Fed tapering hits emerging markets

The currencies of emerging economies have taken a severe beating recently, due in part to US Federal Reserve policy reducing stimulus measures. This tends to suck cash out of emerging markets back to the United States.

The lira has fallen by about 10 percent since mid-December, when a corruption controversy around key Erdogan allies became public.

On Tuesday, the central bank of India announced a surprise decision to raise its key rate by a quarter of a point to 8.0 percent. Among other emerging countries in currency turmoil are Argentina and Russia.

The Fed tapering "hits countries that tend to fund their deficits with short term money flows like Turkey," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.

Brooks listed Turkey among those countries with shaky economic fundamentals, particularly current account deficits, along with India, Indonesia, South Africa and Thailand.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek praised the central bank's decision.

"If they made such a decision, I am sure it is the best one," he told Turkish television, adding that the bank's credibility was "critical".

Erdogan's government wants rates held down to sustain growth ahead of an election cycle beginning with March local polls.

Crisis action by the Turkish central bank doubling its key interest rate gave only brief relief to the lira which fell back as emerging markets faced a US monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

The Turkish decision was closely watched in emerging markets where the South African central bank followed with a half-point rise in its key rate.

The Turkish bank defied political pressure to double its key interest rate to 10.0 percent to attract funds and fight a run on the currency.

The increase was also a pre-emptive move against any tightening of US monetary policy, which could suck money out of emerging economies.

The lira leapt by about 3.0 percent overnight in response to the central bank’s U-turn.

But during trading on Wednesday, the lira lost its gains. After the decision, it shot up to 2.17, but later was down to 2.25 by close of trade.

But it was still well above the record low of 2.39 to the dollar it reached at one point on Monday.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays an old Turkish Lira banknote at a news conferen...

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan displays an old Turkish Lira banknote at a news conference in Ankara on October 3, 2008
Adem Altan, AFP/File

The lira also slipped to 3.11 to the euro before recovering to 3.06.

The Istanbul stock exchange lost by 2.29 percent to 62,088.70 points.

Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Turkish bank providing a shot of confidence amid turmoil in emerging markets.

European stocks also rose, but fell back as the time approached for the US Federal Reserve central bank to say later if it will reduce further its huge stimulus to the US economy.

Analysts say policymakers in other emerging economies were closely watching the effects of the Turkish move.

South Africa’s Reserve Bank followed Turkey by raising its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent, amid sustained pressure on the rand and rising inflation.

A board displays index rates at the Istanbul Stock Exchange in Istanbul on April 30  2007

A board displays index rates at the Istanbul Stock Exchange in Istanbul on April 30, 2007
Hocine Zaourar, AFP

The change of Turkish policy set the central bank in direct confrontation with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, already under pressure over a high-level corruption scandal.

Only hours before the decision he warned that the bank would be responsible for any ensuing slowdown in growth.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said that Erdogan’s criticism of the bank was reflected in the fact that this morning’s positive sentiment was “short-lived”.

“Even allowing for that sentiment wasn’t helped by comments from Turkish PM Erdogan who criticised the central bank’s bold move, which would seem to suggest further problems ahead,” he said.

Lira still vulnerable

Turkey's Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci speaks during a press conference in Ankara on Januar...

Turkey's Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci speaks during a press conference in Ankara on January 28, 2014
, AFP

But the bank went ahead, increasing its overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, the overnight borrowing rate from 3.5 percent to 8.0 percent, and the pivotal one-week repo rate to 10.0 percent from 4.5 percent.

Charles Movit, economist at IHS Global Insight, said the central bank opted for a “bold stance” that should convince the markets but warned that the political uncertainties over the sweeping corruption probe, coupled with global turmoil, could threaten the lira.

“The evolving political situation or volatility in global capital markets could undermine the lira again despite the central bank’s new-found independence,” he said.

London-based Capital Economics said the bank seemed finally to have accepted the “need for tighter policy” and suggested that the increase should bring some stability to Turkey’s financial markets.

But it warned that the economy remained vulnerable.

Fed tapering hits emerging markets

The currencies of emerging economies have taken a severe beating recently, due in part to US Federal Reserve policy reducing stimulus measures. This tends to suck cash out of emerging markets back to the United States.

The lira has fallen by about 10 percent since mid-December, when a corruption controversy around key Erdogan allies became public.

On Tuesday, the central bank of India announced a surprise decision to raise its key rate by a quarter of a point to 8.0 percent. Among other emerging countries in currency turmoil are Argentina and Russia.

The Fed tapering “hits countries that tend to fund their deficits with short term money flows like Turkey,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.

Brooks listed Turkey among those countries with shaky economic fundamentals, particularly current account deficits, along with India, Indonesia, South Africa and Thailand.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek praised the central bank’s decision.

“If they made such a decision, I am sure it is the best one,” he told Turkish television, adding that the bank’s credibility was “critical”.

Erdogan’s government wants rates held down to sustain growth ahead of an election cycle beginning with March local polls.

AFP
Written By

With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.

You may also like:

Social Media

Do you really need laws to tell you to shut this mess down?

Entertainment

Actors Corey Cott and McKenzie Kurtz star in "The Heart of Rock and Roll" on Broadway.

World

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi speaks during a press conference in Tehran on March 4, 2024 - Copyright AFP ATTA KENAREArgentina has asked Interpol...

World

Amnesty International has been critical of Israel and its allies over the war against Hamas in Gaza - Copyright AFP -James PHEBYAmnesty International said...