Why HD-DVD Could Win the High-Def Format War

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The DVD format war is one of the biggest pain-in-the-ass battles I've seen in years. But with a whole lot of news coming from the Toshiba and Microsoft camps recently, HD-DVD might just have the needed edge to take the war.

Digital Journal — I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I think I would put my money on HD-DVD. There, I said it. I think the underdog, the one nobody thought would ever make a dent in the armour of the Blu-ray coalition of the willing, actually has a really damn good chance at winning this little thing the industry likes to call the next-gen DVD format war.

If you bought a Blu-ray player, sorry, but I think you might have an expensive dust collector coming to a theatre near you.

So what gives? Why all the sudden rah-rah HD-DVD talk? Well, I’ve been one of the industry’s biggest critics (I think it’s crazy we’re forced to decide which format we want the same way we had to decide the VHS-Beta war, making half of us broke for buying expensive players that lost the format war), I’m slowly coming around as more reasons emerge to make HD-DVD worth buying. But the debate is now hotter than ever, as the video game industry, the pornography industry, new technology and now new disc sizes muddy the waters. So what is fact, and what is fiction?

The New 51 GB HD-DVD Disc:
When a Digital Journal user broke the news that Toshiba announced a 51 GB HD-DVD disc, I called up Dave Vitale, a Toshiba product manager. Last time I spoke with Vitale was at the launch of the second generation of HD-DVD players, where I handed him a copy of Digital Journal magazine with a huge headline on the cover that read "Why You Shouldn't Buy High-Def DVDs." Needless to say, I don't think I was very popular at the meeting, but Vitale took the bull by the horns and called me on it, laughed, and shrugged it off.

Just back from the Consumer Electronics Showcase, HD-DVD was fresh on his mind, and I couldn't wait to find out how he thought Toshiba's new 51 GB triple-layer HD-DVD disc was going to compete against Blu-ray.

"We announced a new disc capability [and while] it's not something that's being used at this very moment, it's something we can do," Vitale said.

A pretty ho-hum answer about what I thought was big news. But then our interview took a turn I didn't expect.

"The likeliness of it being used is slim to none," he stated plainly. "Based on what we've released to date, there has been no need to go beyond 30 GB. If the need becomes available then the capability is there."

Most product managers would spend five hours talking about how great their new innovation is, hyperbolizing every feature, but Vitale always says it like it is. And for the last year, the Blu-ray camp and critics have focused incessantly on blasting HD-DVD discs for not having as much space as those in the Blu-ray format.

"It's just a strategy of marketing numbers bigger than your competitors," Vitale says. "Blu-ray has long talked about capacity but just recently got past 25 GB. We've never seen a reason to go past 30 GB. Right now, we have well over two hours of high-def movies with lossless sound, extra features and interactivity, and we still have room to spare. When consumers aren't aware of what capacity means, they automatically assume the bigger number is better."

Good point, I thought to myself, but what about people who want the space so they can use HD-DVDs as a back-up medium? Vitale quickly shot down that question, saying these DVD formats are movie formats first, as research shows people still prefer to use hard drives for backing up. Either way, the new 51 GB HD-DVD disc will no doubt have to silence the critics who think bigger is better.

But then there is the question of cost, as HD-DVD is less expensive to produce, but critics have suggested Toshiba's triple layer disc could bring a large-scale production up to the same cost as Blu-ray. Vitale admits it could cost a bit more, but HD-DVD still has an edge.

"I think it's still less expensive than producing a dual layer blu-ray disc," he states plainly. "It has to do with the bonding process and the machinery used to actually make the discs. We use the same machines that we use for making DVDs. [In the end], they will cost less and be easier to do than Blu-ray."

Next-Gen DVDs Battle it Out in the Gaming Industry:
And then comes the gaming industry, the battlefield which many analysts have predicted could end the format war. Playing it safe, Vitale would only refer to the PlayStation 3 as the Blu-ray player that wasn't incredibly expensive.

The gaming world is one area where numbers can sometimes be deceiving, as Sony says it has sold more than one million PS3s (and thus one million Blu-ray players) while Microsoft sold 92,000 HD-DVD add-on drives for the Xbox 360 in late November and early December according to NPD Group.

"The [HD-DVD] figure will no doubt be compared to the number of PlayStation 3s sold in the US...However, it’s worth noting that early adopters to Sony’s console won’t feel any particular allegiance to Blu-ray as yet and the in-built drive wouldn’t have been the main selling point – they would’ve purchased the console anyway regardless," Jay Filmer writes in a recent article. And as Filmer suggests, gamers who purchased an HD-DVD for Xbox 360 have done so specifically to watch movies, while most PS3 gamers have not bought their console to be used specifically as a movie machine.

The risks for the gaming industry are enormous. Well, at least for Sony they are: If HD-DVD wins the war, Sony will have millions of PS3s with useless Blu-ray players in them (oh boy wouldn't gamers be pissed if they paid extra for a gaming console because of Blu-ray, and then the format loses out?). If Blu-ray does win the war, at least Microsoft can cut its loses at the external drives and go on to continue making a gaming console that sells well.

Porn, in High-Def?
Another industry in which the HD-DVD format will compete well is with adult entertainment, as the world of porn continues to see big HD-DVD support. Last week, a storm of controversy erupted after it was reported Sony would not allow porn to be made on Blu-ray discs. But Vivid Entertainment set the record straight yesterday after it confirmed it would be producing porn movies on both formats. But despite the report from Vivid, the rest of the industry seems to be strong HD-DVD supporters.

While he says he wouldn't know from experience, Vitale knows there are some titles already available in HD-DVD from some studios who produce adult entertainment. "I don't think it's a big surprise when you look at small studios trying to survive," he says. "It costs a lot of money for these studios to bring movies to market. It's really no surprise to us that they would chose HD-DVD."

HD-DVD Vs. Hybrid Players:
What was a surprise to the industry was LG's announcement of a hybrid player that would play both HD-DVD and Blu-ray formats. The hybrid announcement sparked discussion about it delaying the DVD battle because consumers would have no reason to chose a format. Vitale isn't so sure.

"I'm glad to see another manufacturer seeing the light, but for us it's non eventful," he says. "The player is still quite expensive, and we have to ask if it will perform as good as a standalone HD-DVD or Blu-ray player? If someone really wanted to have both, there is a less expensive way to get there," Vitale says, hinting that the consumer could still buy an HD-DVD player and a PlayStation 3 and still spend less than the $1,200 (US) sticker price of LG's hybrid player.

The Numbers:
Vitale and I talk for what seems like eternity, but as each argument of mine is shot down by more industry evidence, I can't help but think HD-DVD stands a hell of a chance at kicking ass in '07. "I'm sure we will be hitting 3 million in global sales [by the end of 2007]," Toshiba corporate senior VP, Yoshihide Fujii, told Reuters in an interview. "Of that, 2.3 to 2.4 million units will likely be sold in the United States."

Vitale said Canadian numbers are typically one-tenth of those in the U.S., but Toshiba is very optimistic going into a new year, as the company continues to demonstrate very innovative HD-DVD technologies and pushing the envelope forward.

What's Next for HD-DVD:
At CES, Toshiba showed advanced interactivity that will soon be available for HD-DVD players, such as the ability to download additional content, movie trailers and special features via the player's ethernet connection (the player could download it the same way you would log in to your email that pulls content from a central database). "We also showed the ability to bookmark and share your bookmarks with other players," Vitale says. He says you can bookmark your fave scenes and send those bookmarks to one of your friends through a network environment. As soon as he puts the movie in, he can see the bookmarks you saved.

And according to Engadget, HD-DVD currently has more movies available for the player than Blu-ray.

"I think a lot can happen in a very short time," he says. "Consumers will find HD-DVD more enticing keep coming. In the next 12 months I think we'll see a lot of activity in this war."

At this pace, I tend to agree.