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Gartner prediction will go horriby wrong?

By Patrix     Dec 15, 2006 in Technology
Gartner have predicted that there will be around 100 million bloggers and will peak sometime in 2007. Top tech blogger, Amit Agarwal explains why such a prediction can go horribly wrong.
Amit rightly points out that Gartner mentions that there will be 100 million bloggers and not blogs. And how exactly would you define a blogger is iffy. Is a person posting on DJ a blogger although he/she might just link to news articles or is a person uploading his camera pictures on the accident in his neighborhood one as well? How about a video 'poster' whose submission hit the YouTube hall of fame?
Also, there is the question of connectivity extending to the rest of the world. Less than 5% of China and India is connected to the Internet. As communication technologies improve, more and more people will jump on the blogging bandwagon that they have only heard of. China and India boast of 40% of the world's population so actually there is much untapped potential.
More about Gartner, Blogging, Prediction, 2007, Peak