According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos
survey President Obama is leading Romney 49-42 with a creditability rating of plus or minus 3.6 points.
With 40 days left until the election the both candidates are stating that it is a close race even as Romney struggles to regain ground lost after the Democratic National Convention and the video of remarks to private donors that 47 percent of Americans were dependent on the government uncovered by Mother Jones
. A poll conducted by Gallup indicates that 36 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Romney because of the remarks; however, Gallup’s Frank Newport
A substantial majority of Americans have already made up their minds about their vote choice, so it is likely that many of those who claim to be "more likely" or "less likely" to vote for Romney are, in essence, indicating that the comments reinforced their pre-existing vote choice.
Debates could be decider:
With the debates just weeks away many analyst are arguing that the current polling numbers are not nearly as important as those after the debates; and the candidates seem to agree. ABC’s Amy Walter
reports that both campaigns are actively working to “set a low bar for their own candidate to be able to clear, while setting expectations sky high for their opponent.” Given the high stakes of the upcoming debate this is not surprising. History shows us that a seven point lead can disappear quickly during the debates. As Walter reports in the 2000 election
Coming into their first debate on Oct. 3, the Gallup poll showed Gore leading Bush 47-39 percent. Three days after the debate, the race was tied at 43 percent. A poll taken before the second debate on Oct. 11 found that Gore had regained some of his lead (he was ahead 45-40 percent). But, after the second debate, Bush moved into a 2 point lead. The candidates went into the final debate tied at 44 percent. Three days later, Bush was ahead by 4 points.
It is for this reason that the candidates and analyst alike agree that even with the recent increase in lead that Obama has experienced this race is far too close to call.