The Liberals face a tough challenge ahead of the party’s annual general meeting later this month in Ottawa. Following the contemptuous battle between Queen’s Park and the Teachers’ Union
, it seems the Grits are losing support, one year after nearly winning its third straight majority government, according to a press release
Forum Research published a poll that was commissioned by the Broadview Strategy Group and it found that there has been a substantial shift in support among the left-leaning voters in the province.
Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are tied for first place in popular support (36 percent to 35 percent), while Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have dramatically fallen to 22 percent. Mike Schreiner’s Greens still sit at single digit support with six percent.
Based on these polling numbers, the PCs would receive a minority government, while the NDP would lose seats because the vote for them is “badly distributed.” The projected seats would look like this:
- Progressive Conservatives: 48
- Liberals: 30
- New Democrats: 29
- Greens: 0
When asking Liberal voters, just less than a quarter approve of the premier’s job as leader of the Grits. Meanwhile, 43 percent of Ontarians and 39 percent of Liberal voters want the party to hold a leadership convention within the next year.
If McGuinty were to be kicked out as leader, Don Valley West Member of Provincial
Parliament Kathleen Wynne would be next in line with 24 percent among the field of candidates. Former Health Minister and Toronto mayoral candidate George Smitherman is in second place with 20 percent and Finance Minister Dwight Duncan is third with 18 percent.
“These results represent a significant shift in support for both the NDP and the Liberals since the last election campaign and the desire for the Ontario Liberal Party to conduct a leadership convention to replace Premier McGuinty is all the more serious as party delegates prepare to vote on that very question at the end of this month in Ottawa." said John Laforet, Principal of Broadview Strategy Group, in the media release.
This poll comes as the province recently faced two by-elections
, in which the Liberals held onto Vaughn and the NDPs surprisingly won Kitchener-Waterloo. Hudak blamed the unions for the party’s loss in Kitchener-Waterloo.
The telephone survey was conducted with 1,058 adult Ontarians on Sept. 14. It contains a margin of error of +/- three percentage points.