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article imageFlorida Polls: Mitt Romney holds double-digit lead over Gingrich

By Andrew Moran     Jan 30, 2012 in Politics
Tallahassee - On the eve of the important Florida Republican Primary, a new poll suggests that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is holding a double-digit lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Will Romney take 50 delegates?
Florida for Mitt Romney? The latest polling data suggests that could be the picture Tuesday night when the voting results have been submitted.
According to five polls released Monday, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney holds a strong lead in Florida. One survey shows that Romney has a 16-point lead over former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Another poll suggests that Romney maintains a slim five-point lead over his rival.
Quinnipiac University Poll
Newt Gingrich speaking in Washington
Newt Gingrich speaking in Washington
Gage Skidmore
The latest survey by Quinnipiac University, which has been making headlines, shows that Romney has a 14-point lead with 43 percent support. This is compared to Gingrich’s 29 percent support from Floridians. Meanwhile, Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are both tied with 11 percent.
“Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute assistant director, Peter A. Brown, in a media release. “Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich - self- described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it's hard to see where Gingrich goes from here."
The telephone survey was conducted from Jan. 27 to Jan. 29 with 539 likely Republican primary voters. The poll contains a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
Ron Paul speaking to supporters at a townhall at the University of New Hampshire in Durham  New Hamp...
Ron Paul speaking to supporters at a townhall at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, New Hampshire.
Gage Skidmore
Public Policy Polling (PPP) Poll
The Democratic-leaning PPP poll showed less support, but still a considerable lead for Romney. According to the weekend study, Romney holds 39 percent support, while Gingrich has 32 percent. Santorum sits in third with 14 percent and the libertarian-Republican congressman is three points behind with 11 percent.
“Mitt Romney is holding steady in our Florida polling,” said PPP president, Dean Debnam. “It looks like the main suspense in the state is whether he’ll win by single digits or double digits. Right now he’s pretty close to that line.”
The automated telephone survey was conducted on Jan. 28 and Jan. 29 with 773 likely Republican primary voters. The poll contains a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
Rasmussen Reports Poll
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum
Gage Skidmore
Rasmussen’s survey provides the largest lead for Romney. The poll suggests that Romney is holding a 16-point lead with 44 percent. Gingrich sits far behind with 28 percent, while Santorum has 12 percent and Paul with 10 percent. Five percent remain undecided.
A number important to note is that 21 percent of those surveyed said it’s possible that they could change their mind before they cast their vote Tuesday.
The company also tracked a matchup between President Barack Obama and the Republican nominee. In an Obama/Romney matchup, the former governor is only two points behind. In an Obama/Gingrich election, the former House Speaker trails with 13 points. The company did not issue numbers showing an Obama/Santorum or Obama/Paul election – surveys in the past have shown Paul tied with Obama in a general election.
The survey was conducted with 750 likely Republican Florida primary voters on Jan. 28. The poll contains a margin of error of +/- four percentage points.
Nationally, the polls indicate a tight race between Gingrich and Romney. According to averages by Real Clear Politics, Gingrich has a 2.8 percent lead over Romney with 30.3 percent. Romney has 27.5 percent. Santorum is holding steady with 16.3 percent and Paul, who has noted in the past that he is focusing his campaign on accumulating delegates, is fourth with 12.8 percent.
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