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article imageIowa Republican Caucus Winner Won't Be President, History Shows

By Russ J. Alan     Jan 2, 2012 in Politics
Unless they're the incumbent President, or unless the incumbent President is serving his second term, winning the Iowa Caucuses usually means not winning the nomination, and always means losing the White House, history shows.
History since 1976 has shown us that if the candidate is not the incumbent president, unless the incumbent President is serving his second term, if the said candidate wins the Iowa Caucus for his party, he usually does not eventually win his party's nomination and never becomes President of the United States.
Since 1976, only two candidates who won the Iowa Caucus for their parties ever became the President of the United States. They were George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008; however, had either of the incumbent presidents, Bill Clinton or President Bush, respectively, not been serving their second terms, neither Candidate Bush nor Barack Obama would have won their general elections for the President of the United States, history shows.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter came in second place with 28% of the vote, behind the winner, "Uncommitted", who received 37% of the vote, and he went on to win the democrat party nomination, and the general election for the President of the United States, against the incumbent president, Gerald Ford, who, because he was the incumbent president, won the 1976 Iowa Republican Caucus.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the incumbent President, won the Iowa democrat caucus, but lost the general election for the President of the United States, to Ronald Reagan, who did not win the Iowa Republican Caucus, but rather came in second place. Had Ronald Reagan won the 1980 Iowa Republican Caucus, he would not have won the Republican Party nomination, nor therefore, the general election for the President of the United States, history shows.
In 1984, Walter Mondale won the Iowa democrat caucus that year, and went on to win the democrat party nomination. Ronald Reagan, the incumbent President, was unopposed and therefore won the Iowa Republican Caucus, and later won his second term in the general election for the President of the United States.
1988, Bob Dole won the Iowa Republican Caucus, but did not go on to win the Republican Party nomination. George H.W. Bush, who came in third, went on to win the Republican nomination, and later, the general election for the President of the United States.
In 1992, the incumbent president, George H. W. Bush won the Iowa Republican Caucus unopposed. Bill Clinton, did not win the Iowa democrat caucus, but rather, won third place. He went on to win the democrat party nomination, and the general election for the President of the United States.
In 1996, Bill Clinton, the incumbent President, won the Iowa democrat caucus, unopposed. Bob Dole, won the Iowa Republican Caucus, and went on to win the Republican Party nomination, but. Bill Clinton went on to win the general election for his second term as President of the United States.
In 2000, Bill Clinton was serving his second term while Vice President Al Gore won the Iowa democrat caucus, and went on to win the democrat party nomination. George W. Bush won the Iowa Republican Caucus and went on to win the Republican Party nomination and the general election for the President of the United States.
In 2004, George W. Bush, the incumbent President, won the Iowa Republican Caucus, unopposed. John Kerry, won the Iowa democrat caucus, and went on to win the democrat party nomination. George W. Bush won the general election for his second term as President of the United States.
In 2008, George W. Bush was serving his second term, while Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Republican Caucus, but did not go on to win the Republican Party nomination. Barack Obama, won the Iowa democrat caucus and went on to win the democrat Party nomination, and the general election for the President of the United States.
Barack Obama is not serving his second term YET, and history shows that unless the incumbent President is serving his second term, the opposing party winner of the Iowa Caucus for his party will not go on to win the general election for the President of the United States.
The candidate who wins the Iowa Republican Caucus probably will not win the Republican Party nomination, whether it be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, John Huntsman or whomever else you can think of, and will not become the President of the United States, history shows.
Conclusion:
Got a favorite in the Republican Primary that you'd like to see in the White House? Pray that she or he loses the Iowa Republican Caucus. Then she or he will have a shot at winning the general election for the President of the United States--history shows.
More about History, 1976, Candidate, Candidates, Incumbent
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