The National Weather Service, in its Tropical Weather Outlook, predicts a 30 percent chance of a tropical storm developing by Sunday
In one of the very first Tropical Outlooks of the season, The National Weather Service reported that satellite images showed a low forming off the coast of Jamaica, and that there was a 30% chance that it would develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
From a NWS Press Release:
For the north Atlantic...Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure located roughly a hundred miles south of Jamaica continues to show signs of organization. environmental conditions are generally conducive for further development...and there is a medium chance...30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mud slides over portions of Haiti...the Dominican Republic... Jamaica...and extreme South-Eastern Cuba over the next day or two as the low remains nearly stationary over the West-Central Caribbean sea.