Canada: No more H1N1 deaths than from seasonal flu

While headlines decry the rising H1N1 death toll, news is emerging that there have been no more deaths from this pandemic than from seasonal flu.

A November 20 article on canada.com reported Canada's Chief Health Officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones, as saying that, "the mortality rate from this (H1N1) is no worse than seasonal flu." A November 20 article in the Ottawa Citizen notes that all but one vaccination clinic are being closed because peak demand has passed. An article in the November 20 Vancouver Sun indicates that the second wave seems to be easing off in Alberta. An article in the November 20 Edmonton Sun quoted Dr. Gerry Predy, senior medical officer of health for Alberta Health Services, as saying, "I think we haven't seen the worst in terms of the number of severe illnesses and other people who will require more critical care." As of November 19, H1N1 appears to have claimed the lives of 250 Canadians, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada. In any other year, between 750 and 2500 Canadians die of the flu in a year. The numbers are similar in the US (where about 4000 have died this year rather than the usual 36,000 annual flu-related deaths) and globally. So why is H1N1 being called a pandemic? In fact, the flu outbreak every year is considered at least a level 1 pandemic. What are the differences between the H1N1 pandemic and the usual seasonal flu pandemic? The primary differences seem to be three-fold: H1N1 hit earlier than regular flu season, there's been more activity in the northern hemisphere than usual, and while the regular flu hits elderly people with the highest mortality rate, H1N1 is infecting largely young people. Why is this flu impacting young people hardest? One theory is that the last time the swine flu hit was in the 1960s, so people who lived through that have antibodies while younger people do not. While some of the young people who have died have been otherwise healthy, for the most part it is young people with underlying medical conditions who have died. Why is this flu being treated with so much more concern than the usual, annual flu pandemic? According to a spokesman for the World Health Organization, it is because this flu is behaving unpredictably, killing more young people and more people in the northern hemisphere than would usually be expected. Will seasonal flu drive the death toll up to create an overall flu pandemic? Sources are contradictory on this score. According to an article in the November 16 issue of Maclean's, Canada's medical community has seen little regular flu this year. However, sources in Europe expect that not only could the H1N1 claim many more lives before it's done, but the regular flu is likely to hit early in 2010 and claim thousands more. Most of the medical community continues to advise people to be vaccinated against H1N1. The regular flu vaccine campaign is also underway, and today on WebMD it is suggested that either previous vaccination plus current vaccination, or previous exposure plus current vaccination, may confer some protection against the current strains. (It is unclear whether having been exposed to H1N1 and one or more other flu strains would confer the same protection without vaccination.) However, some critics are saying that the largest vaccination campaign in Canada's history may have been botched, and it's too late now to continue rolling the vaccine out.