Taliban 'routed' in Pakistan’s North West

The Pakistani army considers the withdrawal of Taliban forces more like a rout than a tactical withdrawal. In recent fighting the army has been making inroads in the North West Frontier province.

The offensive in the strategically important frontier province affects a major link to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Casualties have been relatively light, but the Taliban are in retreat. 500 Taliban fighters are reported killed. Only 55 Pakistani soldiers have been reported as fatalities in a month’s fighting, which in modern warfare means the opposition has been neither numerous nor effective. The casualty figure is consistent with relatively low level forces, not major numbers of combatants. The Taliban themselves haven't claimed any successes. Pakistan’s previous efforts against the Taliban were tentative and ineffectual, and in some cases disasters. The current offensive is very different. There are some indications of indirect American support, but the result on the ground is a major all-Pakistani achievement. From being unable to realistically engage the Taliban to important successes like the clearance of the Swat Valley and the current operations is a huge improvement. The Pakistani military consider the return to commando raids and bombings to indicate the Taliban have run out of military combat capacity and have returned to guerrilla warfare. That’s looking like a good assessment. It’s consistent with recent information that many Taliban fighters in Pakistan are people from poor families who have no chance of getting work, and joined the Taliban as much as a job as for any other reason. These recruits aren’t the experienced mujahadin of the past, and their combat abilities can’t be on the same level. The “cannon fodder” effect is the usual result of putting low grade combat-effective troops against regulars. If that’s the case, the numbers of veteran fighters have been severely eroded. The likely scenario is that replacing casualties in Afghanistan has drained the Taliban of their experienced fighters in Pakistan over time, and the lack of experienced combatants is starting to break down these forces. There have also been no reports of “foreign fighters” involved in these operations, an unusual development. The North West Frontier offensive also isn’t seeing the same levels of intense fighting as in the Swat Valley. Nor is the Pakistani military making the same mistakes. The offensive is systematic, a multi stage clearing operation which is geared to making progress rather than press releases. The net effect has been to give the Taliban a war on two fronts. The Pakistani army offensive could completely change the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been the support base for the Taliban for decades. It’s debatable if they can find another large support zone in Afghanistan or elsewhere, even with help from the local drug lords and sympathizers.