Sources Claim World Closer to 'Peak Oil' than IEA Estimates

The International Energy agency released World Oil Outlook 2009 today. Even before its release agency insiders were questioning its accuracy.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) which advises 28 industrialized countries on energy policy, released its World Energy Outlook earlier today. Even before the report was officially released it was creating controversy in the news. The Guardian carried a front-page story today, before the report was officially released, based on conversations with a 'whistle blowing' source. According to the Guardian:

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves....In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels.

The Guardian's story has been proven correct, Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency today in London at the launch of the new WEO, predicted rising oil production until at least 2030 and stated, "Calling for increased investment in fossil-fuel supply is not inconsistent with the need to move to a low-carbon energy pathway,” However, it is likely that most environmentalists will be very disppleased with the IEA idea of low-carbon. Less than a month ago environmentalists celebrated the World Day of Action on Climate Change. Their slogan was 350. The number of 350 is regarded as scientifically significant in terms of climate change: 350 is the number that leading scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide—measured in "Parts Per Million by volume" in our atmosphere. 350 PPM—to avoid runaway climate change. The figure of 350 has been exceeded since 1988 and at present the global figure is approximately 385 PPM. The low-carbon program that the IEA proposes sets 450 as a target, almost 30% higher than the 350 advocated by environmental scientists. The report also contains special sections on natural gas and southeast Asia.