Poll: Democrat support drops, Republican support stays the same

Poll indicates Republicans could have good year, but their gains still may not be enough for control of House of Representatives.

A new Gallup poll shows the Republicans pulling almost neck and neck when a respondent is asked, "if the election was held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" When that question was posed to people in July, 50 percent of those who responded said they would support a Democrat, while 44 percent picked a Republican, while 7 percent said they were undecided. The poll was done again in October and results show Democrats still have a slim lead, with 46 percent supporting them, while Republicans have support of 44 percent of respondents. While numbers went down for Democrats, Republican support stayed the same. In terms of analyzing the generic ballot for clues as to which party has the true advantage, the size of the lead among registered voters offers more insight than just who has the lead. While Democrats usually have a stated lead in registered voters, Republicans have historically had better turnout on election day. With the Democrats currently holding a 257 seat majority in the 435-seat House, only a landslide would rest control from the Democrats, but this polling may indicate a wider trend as we move closer to 2010.