Osama Bin Laden's recent media release has raised some questions. Everyone's favorite fashion commentator may have said a bit too much, and in the wrong way. The statement has many overtones of playing to the masses, not the issues.
This is generally believed to be a genuine AQ product. It sticks to the usual broad anti Western angle, but is unusual in its singling out of European involvement. The assumption of an American withdrawal is also a new topic.
According to
Yahoo/AAP Bin Laden said:
"It won't be long before the war's dust in Afghanistan clears out, and you will not find a trace of an American (soldier) ... and it will be only us and you left," he said, addressing Europeans.
The message was primarily directed at Germany after a series of videos directed at German involvement in Afghanistan, and it’s unclear if the threat was made against NATO troops or the European nations.
This level of “topical” news response is relatively new. AQ’s public relations may tend to be on the explosive and predictable side, but the release was clearly a reference to America’s debate about more troops for Afghanistan.
AQ appears to be unaware of the fact that the US is a founding member of NATO. The military relationship isn’t quite that simple. In practice, movement of troops in or out of the country is done through a series of political decisions by member nations, then translated into actions through NATO.
More unusual is the factual error. In point of fact there’s been no indication of a US withdrawal. The current issue is “more troops or not”, and how any more troops would be used. There's been nothing from Washington, and certainly no official statements. Since this message was syndicated through the militant Islamic websites, the omission may have been for internal consumption.
AQ’s status is a point which has been puzzling observers for some time. As an organization which claims to be leading the anti Western jihad, AQ has done little and achieved nothing except the loss of Iraq in the last eight years. The recent flurry of verbosely playing to the grandstands may be a reassertion of its claims to leadership.
Overall, AQ’s public image has moved from sharp to blurry. The recent emphatic defeat of the Taliban in Pakistan doesn’t appear to have rated a mention in AQ media. The observed pattern in AQ media is “There is no bad news”. Goebbels used much the same approach after 1943. The lack of visual appearances of OBL may just be normal security, but given the persistent rumors, it’s an odd absence for an organization which is basically living on its profile.
This low grade media effort may mean that AQ is trying to do with words what it has been unable to do on the battlefield. Previously, attacks in Europe have been followed, not preceded, by rhetoric. None of AQ’s previous media releases have related to operational moves by either themselves or affiliates. It remains to be seen what this message really entails, but as a PR exercise, it’s a classic example of creating a topic and addressing it, rather than substantive.
