There are some very false assumptions about Iran flying around.
The most glaring example is to believe that Iran is a budding democracy that needs to find its feet, that it is an Islamic democracy in the making.
That false idea leads to another erroneous idea, which contends that the current problems in that country are temporary, and that things will calm down and minor adjustments and tinkering with the system will albeit slowly, improve things after all the fuss has died down.
Which leads to a third and over-hasty conclusion which holds that the recent problems are, at the end of the day, purely political.
That analysis couldn’t be more wrong.
The problems in Iran are fundamentally ideological and potentially catastrophic for the regime and they have nothing at all to do with politics.
That’s why the regime is putting the accent on the few flimsy pseudo-political aspects it is able to invent and drag up, and it is highly regrettable that Western analysis and reaction is, for the most part, naively buying that short-changed version of reality.
Hook, line and sinker.
Western proponents of that school of thought hold Moussavi up as an example of possible change. They also say that there should be renewed elections and that the authorities should "listen to the voice of the people."
They couldn’t be more wrong.
What we should be denouncing here is not a failing democracy, but the cynical, opportunistic and abusive use of democratic principles to hide what is not just a theological regime, but a totalitarian theological regime.
But the Iranian people know that better than those in the West seem to do, and their protests were not only inspired by political deception and designed to obtain renewed elections.
They were also inspired by a subliminal rejection of the system and the regime itself.
There is an enormous difference between what the Iranian people know the world outside to be and the world that the regime wants them to believe exists.
But the rot has already set in.
Moussavi, a pure product of the regime under the wings of Khameni and Knomeni, is still a theocrat and supporter of the regime in general.
Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, is a world crusader and a dangerous dreamer who has blackmailed the world over nuclear issues, has not lifted a finger to help the situation in Iraq, on the contrary, has a negationist world view and has led his country to relative ruin.
Most importantly, he is not a clericist. And that means he has influential enemies.
This is a dangerous moment for the regime because although Ahmadinejad has ‘won’ the elections, he is heavily contested in the corridors of clerical power. That will inevitably lead to a clash one day.
And that upcoming clash will be exploited by the people of Iran.
They can already see the signs of it's coming.
There are persistent reports concerning the various state militias and the Revolutionary Guard, all of whom are said to be more or less split on which side to take in the current crisis within the regime.
The appointment of an Ahmadinejad favourite at the head of one of these militias is said to be ulcerating certain of his opponents.
Another chink in the armour.
It is also becoming clear that Ahmadinejad and the clerics did not see eye-to-eye on the tactics to be used during the recent demonstrations.
The Mullahs are deeply divided at every level of the system.
And the list goes on.
Open rebellion however, be it by elements of the regime or the people, is not going to happen immediately.
Everyone knows that the upheaval caused by the end of the regime will be enormous, with no assured or predictable result.
That’s why things are quiet, for now.
But Iran will inevitably change radically over the next couple of years.
The ongoing struggle at the top of the regime will one day lead to its rupture and subsequent exploitation by the Iranian people.
Theocracy cannot reform itself. It never has. Modern Iranians are well aware of that. And they are also convinced that change is coming.
For that change to happen, they need all the encouragement they can get from the West, which has a crucial role to play here. And the West must help them.
Because, just as the rise of the regime coincided with the rise in Islamic Fundamentalism, it’s fall will inevitably contribute to Fundamentalism’s demise.
Then we will all be able to move on together from the shabby ruins of this detestable period in recent world history.
