While no official decision has been made public, a number of sources believe that the decision of where May will run in the next election has been made and the answer is: Saanich Gulf Islands.
Speculation has grown steadily since
May announced that her path to Parliament would not take her through Central Nova, the Nova Scotia riding where she ran in 2008. Instead, the Greens would be taking something of a political 'Hail Mary' to ensure that May is elected in the next election.
Of course, the decision involves a trade-off. Other Green candidates are being put on the back burner as the party prioritizes electing May. The
Green leader said that in the last election, "If it wasn't me elected as the first Green, it didn't matter much. Now there is a different attitude ... I hope it won't offend anyone."
Despite the blunt assessment by May that “Our number one priority is to elect me,” it appears that the decision has been welcomed by the party, or at the very least, hasn't turned any candidates away.
The decision of where to run boiled down to five options: Guelph and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in Ontario, Saanich-Gulf Islands in British Columbia and Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia.
While reports maintain that the party continues to do polling all indications are that the decision has already been made. While the only thing that was officially clear was that May would not run in Central Nova, it appears the leader is taking her show out West to BC.
The decision must have been difficult for May. The Green leader did not want to leave Central Nova and has said so on many occasions. Of May's indecision,
Dan Dugas, a spokesman for Central Nova MP and Conservative minister Peter MacKay said “that’s her position as of 13:52 on Monday. Because you do need a program to keep track of what riding she’s going to run in.”
May deserves respect for setting her pride aside and coming to grips with the reality that dethroning MacKay was never in the cards. Indeed, the priority to elect May translates into an implicit admission by the Green leadership that running in the riding of Central Nova will not bring the leader electoral victory. Despite past overtures and rhetoric indicating the opposite, it is clear that May cannot win against MacKay.
May won just over 32% of the vote in Central, the best percentage tally of any Green in the last Federal election. But May lost by almost 6,000 votes, and after an agreement with then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion, she did not have to campaign against a Liberal in the riding.
So why Saanich-Gulf Islands?
It may have been more of a process of elimination rather than the prospects of victory in Saanich blowing the party leadership out of the water. Central Nova wouldn't do because Greens have long demanded that May leave a riding they do not think will propel her to Ottawa.
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, next door to Central Nova, has been vacant since Bill Casey, an Independent and highly respected champion of Atlantic Canada, stepped down. But it is probably 'too close to home' to justify changing ridings. Notably, Greens couldn't convince Casey to run as a Green rather than an Independent, but did not run a candidate against him in the last election instead declaring him an
“honourary Green”. Now out of Federal politics, Casey likely wouldn't endorse May.
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound poses many of the same electoral problems for the Greens as Central Nova. While Dick Hibma came in second in 2008 winning 27% of the vote, Conservative Larry Miller won almost 48%. The margin is simply too large and it is doubtful that in a rural Ontario riding, May could make up the difference in support.
Many Greens felt May should run in Guelph. It had the smallest margin of any Green campaign and is widely considered a bastion of green support and progressive politics. Green candidate Mike Nagy won 21% of the vote, an increase of over 12% from the previous election. But Guelph was hammered in the last election by strategic voting, unleashing a fire that many feel May ignited or at the very least, refused to put out. Further, May surely wouldn't run against a Liberal MP and Guelph is represented by first-time Liberal MP Frank Valeriote. Some Greens believe it is her mission, her raison d'être, to unseat a high-profile Conservative and take her rightful seat in the House of Commons to champion climate change and the survival of the planet.
That leaves Saanich-Gulf Islands, which would take May from Atlantic Canada to the West coast. Perhaps an indication of May's decision, a number of high-profile and influential supporters of May have joined a Facebook Group that supports May running there. Oddly, one member of the group is the current Ontario representative on the Green Party's Federal Council, begging the question why the Ontario rep is supporting a BC riding when two declared options are in Ontario. Green Party staff in BC are even sending out requests to join the group.
The riding is held by Gary Lunn, Conservative Minister of State for Sports, who won with 43% of the vote. Liberal candidate Briony Penn, an environmental advocate and activist, came in second place and had previously supported the Green Party.
It is unclear, however, whether May has spoken about running with Penn or the Green Party candidate, Andrew Lewis, who won 10.5% of the vote. That result was down 6 percent since 2004. Lewis' 2008 campaign was heavily affected by strategic voting and left many with a sour taste about the national party's role in it.
May has said that she would officially announce where she would run before Labour Day. But a number of Greens are puzzled as to why she does not announce her intentions now and begin a pre-election campaign to raise support. She will have to deal with a number of issues and will surely be asked about weighing principle versus political expediency and being a parachute candidate. Getting a head start on dealing with these challenges and setting up a ground campaign to drum up support could only help her cause.
Further, has May spoken with Greens in the riding and patched up any negative feelings from the last campaign? Will Penn support her? In her own words, why Saanich-Gulf Islands and why not the others? In time, she will also have to answer the toughest question of all: after getting her own choice riding, what happens if she doesn't win?
