Op-Ed: It's Time to Re-consider the Threat that Pakistan Poses

Although the focus of the Obama administration in the so-called war on terror has shifted back from Iraq to Afghanistan, the target in the diplomatic crosshairs should be, undeniably, Pakistan.

For too long now, the country has precariously straddled the razor sharp edge of realpolitik engaging in questionable alliances with both sides of the conflict while successfully deflecting widespread attention from their backroom activities which, if highlighted, would ultimately lead to worldwide condemnation. The most recent and worrisome news to come out of Pakistan in the last couple of weeks is the 'truce' reached between the country's leadership and the Taliban insurgents who have crossed over from Afghanistan and have now conquered a previously idyllic tourist destination with no previous history of Islamic fundamentalism. What makes this particularly disconcerting is that the Taliban regime secured the unfortunately-named region of Swat without so much as even a finger raised from the Pakistani army. In response, through this truce, the leadership has instead given the green light to the Taliban to impose Sharia law indiscriminately. Within weeks, this has already led to fierce and quick systematic oppression. Girls have been forbidden to attend school, music is outlawed. Sound familiar? If this was just another scenario playing out in Afghanistan, it would not really register with us, but what is turning heads is the fact that the Taliban have now officially crossed the border and is in the business of exporting their repression now. A Taliban presence in Pakistan is nothing new, but prior to this, it always lurked below the radar, for instance, in the 'lawless' tribal regions where the now semi-mythical Osama is believed to be hiding out and in the hate-mongering madrasa schools of suicide-bombers now popping up like poppies. The truce appears to be a creature of indefinite duration. Southeast Asian commentators are warning this blatant display of hard-line Taliban influence could infiltrate deeper into Pakistan including Punjabi areas which could turn particularly nasty. Pakistan as a whole is unlikely to fall to Talibanization anytime soon but given the allegiance of many within the country's halls of power, the influence the regime could wield is almost certain to grow. And don't forget: Pakistan has the bomb. Ever since the assassination of former president Benazir Bhutto in December of 2007, the hopes of a fully democratic Pakistan have deteriorated and many pundits now agree that the country has devolved into a functional anarchy. The UK-based newspaper, The Guardian recently admitted the "nuclear-armed country [is] hurtling towards chaos". Although current Pakistani president Zardari has voiced opposition to the Taliban takeover of Swat and has characterized them as 'murderous thugs', very little action is being undertaken, officially anyway, to stem to the rise of fundamentalism in the countryside. While Zardari and company should be busy strategizing a response, especially since Swat is less than two hundred kilometres from Islamabad, the newly appointed US Special Rep to the region, Richard Holbrooke, indicated that no strong commitment from the Pakistanis on this issue had been offered. Washington's top priority must be encouraging Pakistan to take stronger concerted action in these tribal territories near the Afghan border. The Obama camp has promised more non-military aid, with plans to triple social and economic assistance. The condition attached, however, is that the US seeks more accountability in Pakistan. This sounds prudent but such transparency simply does not exist within the country at this time. The US cannot even guarantee safe passage of their supplies bound for Afghanistan through the Pakistani corridor, let alone ensure that what is officially offered to Pakistan will not end up in the hands of the militants they are trying to defeat. Even more potentially disastrous news are reports that Pakistani authorities have agreed to the distribution of over 30,000 rifles among villagers in the area in order to 'combat growing militancy and restore the government's writ'. So it seems even their limited response will only add fuel to the fire. Lack of transparency, widespread corruption and the stranglehold of the military within the upper echelons of power constitute only half the problem. The involvement of the ISI, Pakistan's equivalent to the CIA, stands as one of the most bothersome thorns in the promise of a democratic Pakistan. From its alleged hand in the orchestration of the attacks on 9/11 to growing revelations of their involvement in the recent Bombay attacks which has since decimated the Indo-Pak relationship, the ISI must be brought under control and the US must officially and unequivocally sever ties with this organization that flagrantly disregards national policy and contradicts the statements of its leaders. But given the tangled web of geopolitics in the area, such a severance is a pipe dream at best. I hope for the sake of Pakistan and the region as a whole that the prophetic speculation from an acquaintance of mine from France does not materialize. He figures that the more subversive hawkish elements within the intelligence community and the US government are simply biding their time, allowing, and even assisting, the Taliban to spread its influence throughout Pakistan to the point where the US would be justified in sweeping in militarily just as they had done in Afghanistan. At present, such a scenario would not be feasible given vehement opposition to recent American aerial bombings of targets on Pakistani soil, but what the future holds with a new US president at the helm is anyone's guess.