Three Climate Models, One Glove

Three computer models, two posit global warming as the culprit of glacial melt in Greenland, one suggests an isolated event at the glacier and sea interface. Only one fits observable facts.

The observable facts as noted in a study released today show that despite widespread concern throughout the scientific community, not all researchers can agree on the genesis or outcome of what is occurring worldwide or even at one set of glaciers. Three computer models were used to test the observable results at Helheim Glacier, the largest glacier in Greenland. Two of the models which were based on the assumptions of greenhouse gasses creating global warming were tried but found to leave nagging questions for Andreas Vieli and Faezeh Nick of Durham University in Britain.

"They simply don't fit what we have observed," said Vieli in an interview.

Vieli and Nick used a computer model which posited the melt off event being triggered by conditions in the area where the glacier meets the sea. The observable facts and the computer model reportedly "fit like a glove" Vieli said.

"Whatever happens at the terminus provokes a strong and rapid reaction in the rest of the glacier. The result has been a significant loss of mass" as huge chunks of ice drop into the ocean, a process known as calving, Vieli explained.

It should be noted that the Helmhein glacier began to slow down in 2007. Vieli has suggested the method of making long term forecast based on short term results which only span a few years may lead to unwarranted assumptions and erroneous data. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the very disturbing announcement in 2007 of a rise in sea levels of between 18 and 59 centimetres. (7.2 inches to 23.2 inches) by the end of the century. The study which was used to make that prediction failed to take into account some of the more recent studies which show the impact of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Since those studies have been taken in to account, the upper limit of 59 centimeters has been removed. The disclaimer made by Vieli of the narrow range of the computer model being used for predictions does indicate that caution should be used to include observable results and that warming, irrespective of the cause, can be a disaster for many of the low lying nations of the world. Vieli and Nick's study was focused on only the Helheim Glacier and Vieli warned against using such an isolated study as a prediction model for the entire planet.