Op-Ed: Israel and Gaza and an unlikely future resolution

The tragedy of hard realities in the region have all parties running around in circles as usual, and while violence is being used as a common strategy, the strategy for peace has yet to be decided on.

Public opinion The current Israeli bombardment and incursion in Gaza has spilled a lot of blood. The world is watching and as expected is shocked. Appalled may actually be the correct word, as pictures on the news pour in showing the dead and the injured. The politics behind this is complex; the reasoning from either side regarding their own actions is bound to certain realities and specific goals. Any rational observer may ask questions along the lines of – why don’t Palestinians stop shooting rockets in order to stop the Israeli offensive? They must really believe that even if the Israelis stopped, they would be no better off. Some may ask if it is the Palestinians decision, or if the Hamas has their own agenda? Others would ask why public opinion in Israel supporting the offensive is so strong? Parents know that this means their children that are soldiers will be put in harms way, a huge portion of the Israeli public may be called for reserve duty. They must really believe in this operation to support it knowing how it affects them on a personal level. Many observers wonder if the Israeli public are brainwashed, or just plain bloodthirsty? While Palestinian casualties are incredibly high, and among those many are civilians, Israeli casualties are low, and are mainly among troops. Israelis don’t feel unjust in regards to this comparison, as any Israeli will claim that if the Hamas had the power, they would kill as many Israeli’s as they could, and for the last few years all the rockets they fired were aimed directly at cities inside Israel. The situation on the ground Israel is a country where politically, left equals centre - especially during times like these. I would like to state at this point that I am Israeli, and even though the majority of the left in Israel may stand to my right, from an outsider’s perspective my views may appear right of centre. The above comparisons may appear to subjectively favour Israel, but I assure you, among other Israeli’s I belong to a small percentage that will even talk that way. Israeli’s are as firm as ever in their belief that the current actions are called for, and see any civilian death on the other side, as brought on by themselves. While talk in Gaza currently concentrates on standing firm and fighting till the bitter end, talk in Israel is focusing on what outcome from the military operation would justify a ceasefire. Israelis know that if they go deeper into Gaza, they will lose more soldiers and lose even more favour in public opinion worldwide while their goals still might not be met. In that case it is probable - while pulling out now it would be definite, that when the ceasefire comes - it will be one sided. Israel will cease operations under fire, and the Hamas will declare victory. It is obvious that the Hamas mean business. The Palestinians have nothing to lose after decades of suffering. So for now it seems that Israel is bracing itself for the next step, and the last few weeks may end up just being a warm-up for what’s to come. Israel now plans to show it means business after years of restraint while the Hamas fired rockets daily into Israel. Israel wants a solution, but will not negotiate with the Hamas as they consider them a terrorist organization. They also may not be willing to sacrifice all that is needed for the Palestinian people to sign an agreement.

A “deadly” slow and purposeful strategy The Hamas will not stop firing on Israel no matter what punishment they suffer. Their message is clear - they want freedom, they want more land, they want a proper country. Unfortunately they have also repeatedly stated publicly that they want to obliterate Israel and push all the Jews into the sea. Israel has over the last few days introduced a “humanitarian ceasefire” for 3 hours a day to allow humanitarian aide into Gaza. As the people of Gaza suffer more and more, Israel would love nothing more than to see them break down and overthrow the Hamas. This is highly unlikely and is not Israel’s strategy. Is it possible that should the Hamas break these ceasefires causing Israel to react, that the Palestinians will complain? Will the Hamas fear this and keep to the ceasefire for the agreed time? If this would be the case, Israel could extend the ceasefire gradually, adding extra hours to it daily until shots stop being fired. Ideally that would be a possible strategy, but things don’t work this way, and the Hamas is probably not that weak. For now they can take more blows, and therefore Israeli’s belief that hitting them harder will deliver an outcome, is getting even stronger. Who is more stubborn? Israel, Palestine or… Palestine? Currently the Palestinian people are split into two main factions, both politically and geographically. The Hamas rule the Gaza strip, a tiny piece on land on the Egyptian border, surrounded by Israel and the Mediterranean Sea. The Fatah rules the Palestinian territories in the West Bank. The West Bank surrounds Jerusalem and once was a province of Syria. In 1948 it was captured and annexed by Jordan, then in 1967 Israel took control of it. Progress between the Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel is more probable, as the Fatah that rules there are more moderate than the Hamas and have shown willingness to sit down with the Israeli’s and talk. The West Bank has also been calmer than Gaza in the recent years; rockets are not being fired out of the West Bank. This situation may not last for long. Israel may need to recognize an opportunity here and grab it. If by some miracle Israel and the Fatah reach an agreement where the West Bank is delivered entirely (or almost entirely) to the Palestinians, and no violence follows, the Palestinians there may begin to build a new country. Cities could spring up, an economy could grow, Israeli/Palestinian businesses could flourish. Money from all over the world would flow in to help build the new Palestinian state. Eventually, once trust is built, the wall will come down. The Palestinians in Gaza may see this and want the same. It would show them that talking with Israel can be fruitful. Would this kind of situation possibly reunite the Palestinians and bring some sort of normality to the region? While this scenario currently is nothing more than a naive fantasy, if it were possible it brings up a question: Does the current offensive in Gaza steer the Palestinians in Gaza towards being able to see this, or even force them into being inclined in the future to this kind of agreement? Or will it have the reverse effect and leave the Palestinians in a position where they are less likely to believe in negotiation? History shows us that the current offensive won’t accomplish much of anything that promotes peace. A strategy that tries to tire a people towards seeing the other sides’ point of view of what makes “sense” doesn’t work. Regardless of the current offensive, should some progress come about in the West Bank, the people in Gaza will be able to see that their neighbour’s grass is greener… if they decide to see that. Meanwhile any talk of progress seems to be obsolete. Israel may have a few different opportunities following the operation in Gaza, but their priority at the moment is to cripple the Hamas. Should chances of peace be easier or harder following that, only time will tell. In this region, even though many believe that violence only breeds more violence, those same people wont hesitate to resort to violence to fight for security. Immediately following the current attack on Gaza, Rev Federico Lombardi, a Vatican Spokesman released a statement that sums up the situation pretty well: "Hamas is a prisoner to a logic of hate, Israel to a logic of faith in force as the best response to hate.

"One must continue to search for a different way out, even if that may seem impossible."