Op-Ed: McCain Should Study Lessons of Reagan During Tonight's Debate

The pivotal event of the 1980 presidential campaign was the single debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. What started with President Carter slightly ahead before the debate, became a comfortable Republican victory in the General Election.

What was generally considered a tight race changed drastically over the course of two hours. Republican challenger Ronald Reagan turned in a great performance that turned the tide of the campaign. No reversal of fortune of that magnitude has happened since after any televised debate Moderated by Howard K. Smith, the presidential debate between Carter and Reagan received among the highest ratings of any television show in the previous decade. It also draws some potential parallels to tonight's debate. Topics included such foreign policy matters as the Iranian hostage crisis, and nuclear arms treaties and proliferation. Today Iran is certainly relevant due to their alleged sponsorship of terrorism and also their nuclear ambitions. The proliferation issue is relevant again with Iran and also with India, with whom the United States has just signed a nuclear material sharing agreement with that both candidates support. President Carter's campaign sought to portray Reagan as a reckless "hawk", a label the Obama campaign has subtly painted McCain as being. While Reagan and Carter repeatedly clashed over the nuclear weapons issue in their debate, Obama and McCain have and will likely continue to clash over the War in Afghanistan and the occupation of Iraq. McCain would do well tonight in mimicking Reagan's demeanor of the debate. Instead of being the grumpy, impatient and dismissive performer of the two previous debates he should aim for the sunny and tolerant style that worked so well for his hero. When Carter made a reference to the governor's record, voting against Medicare and Social Security benefits, Reagan famously responded with a cheerful "There you go again." It was a line that McCain's running mate attempted to use in her debate against Joe Biden and it is one that he should use if the moment presents itself. In his closing remarks, Reagan asked a simple yet devastating question that would resonate with voters in 1980 and beyond: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" That is a line that McCain may want to stay away from, but that Barack Obama may want to incorporate. According to Carter Press Secretary Jody Powell's memoirs, internal tracking polls showed Carter's tiny lead turning into a major Reagan landslide over the final weekend. In the 2004 election John Kerry held a slight lead over George W. bush after the their third debate, but eventually suffered a narrow loss in the general election. Going into tonight's debate the Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama leading McCain by a double digit margin. A New York Times/CBS poll lays out some possible reasons for that gap. However, John McCain and his supporters should not be disheartened by the poll numbers. Things can turn on a dime, even this late in the game. For example, look for John McCain to pounce on the ill timed statement by Jesse Jackson in relation to America's foreign policy towards Israel if Barack Obama is elected. The fact that Jesse Jackson has no capacity in the Obama campaign has not stopped the Obama camp from rebuking his comments. Little things like this are game changers as are potential gaffes made by the Illinois Senator. A strong even preformance by John McCain tonight could easily bring the Arizona Senator right back in the race with 21 long days remaining.