Canada: Poll Says Conservative-Liberal Gap Closing

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The most recent Harris-Decima poll shows [pdf file] that the Conservatives and Liberals are moving closer to each other; one result of this trend could be a minority government.

Nationally, over the last four nights, the Conservatives lead with 31%, followed by the
Liberals at 27%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 12%, the BQ with 8%.

In Ontario, the Liberals are at 34%, Conservatives 26%, NDP 24%, Greens 15%.

In Quebec, the BQ stands at 36%, the Liberals are at 28%, the Conservatives 21%, the
NDP 10% and the Greens at 5%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 32%, the Conservatives 31%, NDP 29%, Greens
6%.

In BC, the Conservatives have 38%, the NDP 24%, Greens 20% and the Liberals 16%.

Among urban voters, the Liberals have the lead for the first time since the election was called, among women the two parties are now tied, for the first time since the writ was dropped. Among urban women, the Liberals have opened up a 9 point lead. Among women 50 or older, the race is also now a dead heat.

Perhaps one result that will surprise many.

Stephane Dion is now marginally more popular than Stephen Harper. Mr. Dion’s positives are 1 point higher and his negatives 3 points lower, marking the first time that this standing has been reversed.

Mr. Dion’s positive have increased 11 points off his trough, while Mr. Harper’s positives have dropped 13 off his peak. Mr. Layton’s positives have slid 5 points in the last week.

Harris/Decima President Bruce Anderson said “The Conservatives have mounted an effort to respond to these patterns of declining support in Quebec and among older and economically anxious voters, against the backdrop of markets that continue to deteriorate. The effect of the market, the Conservative response, and the campaigns of other parties are all factors to watch as the final days of this campaign tick down, and the battle appears to be coming down to Ontario.

The numbers show little doubt that the Liberals have been having better success, the Conservative campaign has taken a serious hit, while the NDP remains an important wild card, with the prospects of either a breakthrough or yet another polarization slump both plausible outcomes for them.

Finally, with the narrowing race, the question of whether significant numbers of Green Party voters will be called upon or decide to migrate to the Liberals as a strategic choice looms large.”