South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki axed by ANC

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In a dramatic turn of events, it has today been confirmed that Thabo Mbeki will stand down as President once he has completed his constitutional responsibilities just months before he was due to end his ten year term after being voted out by his own party, the ANC.

The current political crisis was sparked by a judgement in Pietersburg by Judge Chris Nicholson last Friday that Mbeki's political rival Jacob Zuma would not be prosecuted for 783 allegations of corruption over ten years as it had been invalidated on procedural grounds. Judge Nicholson gave a damning judgement implicating Mbeki in a political conspiracy to thwart Zuma's presidential ambitions and in the affairs of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).

This has been called the final nail in Mbeki's coffin by an ANC source. It seemed to validate Zuma's claims that he is the victim of a political conspiracy and implicated Mbeki and some of his ministers in political interference in the prosecution.

The tension began when the NPA announced that it was exercising its right to appeal the ruling. This was met with fury from Zuma's supporters. Mbeki added fuel to the fire by indicating that he would be seeking legal advice.

It is understood that the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) decided at a meeting on Monday to recommend Mbeki's removal as President.

Just over two years ago, Mbeki fired Zuma as Deputy President over the allegations of fraud. In December last year in a humiliating turn of events for Mbeki, Jacob Zuma replaced him as president of the ANC at its National Congress in Polokwane, Limpopo.

According to the Mail & Guardian, although the majority (of the ANC) clearly supports the removal of Mbeki, the decision to sack him will not come without a fight, especially from those who supported his re-election as ANC president. A senior provincial leader sympathetic to Mbeki said the decision to force him to step down was fuelled by the spirit of vengeance.

The article states that moods hardened after the NPA announced its intention to appeal judgement and cabinet announced it would seek legal opinion - a decision that militants believed was further evidence of Mbeki's political agenda to charge Zuma and also his arrogance towards the party's leadership.

This view that vengeance is behind the decision to axe Mbeki was echoed today by the leader of the Democratic Alliance, Helen Zille.

"This is revenge, poor and simple."

She went on to slam the leadership of the ANC for ignoring the constitution and acting without principle.

"This is a political solution to Zuma's legal problems. He [Zuma] needs to answer in a court of law. This will harm the country and citizens should be able to express an opinion on this," she said.

Professor Doctor Shadrack Gutto, Director of the Centre for African Renaissance Studies, University of South Africa, agrees and said that the ANC has a lot to explain.

It is speculated that there may be a mass exodus of ministers who would choose to go with Mbeki leading to a upheaval in government. Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka elected in 2005, is reported to have said she will step down with Mbeki.

The ANC leaders will engage premiers and Cabinet ministers who might resign in solidarity with Mbeki, asking them to remain in their positions and prevent a mass exodus which would damage the government and South Africa's reputation in the international community.

The plan is to replace Mbeki with parliamentary speaker and ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete.

In an interview on SAfm, Deputy Vice Chancellor at the University of Johannesburg Adam Habib said "This has been the most extraordinary event since the end of apartheid.

He believes that a group within the ANC wanted to humiliate Mbeki and that seven more months with him at the helm would not have made a difference.

"The big question is when will Mbeki go. The transition needs to be politically managed and on Mbeki's departure there will be 30 days to convene a new parliament to elect a new president."

Professor Daryl Glaser of Wits Political Studies believes that the High Court ruling gave Mbeki's enemies the chance to "up the ante" and rule him out. He believes that although leaving Mbeki in office until the end of his term would not have made a difference, his political enemies could just not bear him there any longer.

"What we will see is the shift in power from one authoritarian factor to another. It is quite something when one's own party decides you should not lead the party.

"South African have been living on adrenalin for the past 48 hours. This move has not been entirely unexpected. Hopefully this momentous event will not affect the stability of the country."

Most South African would agree this is not the way hoped that our President would end nearly ten years of rule and that this is not the start of a slide to an ungovernable state with further splits in the ANC.