Op-Ed: Public Perceptions, Not Issues, Now Shaping the Presidential Race

In presidential races past, many have been decided on the issues and where each candidate stood on them. However, public perceptions of POTUS candidates have also overshadowed some races past, and now loom like dark clouds over Obama's campaign.

First, a very good illustration of my point here from Democratic strategist and former Hillary campaign honcho Mark Penn, in an interview with CBS News. In many ways the issues of this campaign, and each candidate's position on them, have already been starkly defined: the Iraq War, taxes, national security, diplomacy vis-a-vis Iran and other American nemeses, and even the size and role of government in the affairs of ordinary Americans. Former President Bill Clinton, for all his flaws, was a master of laying out these issues in stark terms, particularly in the debates, and it was very effective in paving the road to the White House for him in 1992 and 1996. There is no doubt in my mind that many Obama supporters yearn for their candidate to follow in that tradition. However, public perceptions of a presidential candidate, bad or good, can also sway elections in favor of one candidate or the other. In Bill Clinton's case, his very public and straightforward handling of the Gennifer Flowers scandal during the 1992 campaign was considered a masterful stroke even by his most vociferous detractors, who looked at him and wondered "How the hell does he do it?" The perception that the so-called Vast Right Wing Conspiracy had it in for him no doubt engendered some sympathetic votes among moderates and Independents. Hate and rage do not sell very well in presidential elections. In the case of Michael Dukakis in 1988, he was widely perceived as a far left ACLU card-carrying liberal governor of one of the most far left-leaning states in the country. This is why the Willie Horton ad, and another portraying him riding in a tank, hemet and all, were so devastating to his campaign. Saturday Night Live even picked up on it, starring Jon Lovitz in a skit of Mike Dukakis at an elite liberal Manhattan party. There was even a painter drawing a picture of an aircraft carrier converted into a massive homeless shelter. When SNL skewers you in in this fashion in front of the nation, you're in very bad shape. Likewise, in John Kerry's 2004 campaign, his reputation as a 'flip-flopper' based on his famous "I voted for it before I voted against it" line, and subsequent Bush ad campaign based on that statement, overshadowed the remainder of his campaign. If you look at John Kerry's reasoning for that particular statement, it actually makes sense. The bill he originally voted for had changed in a manner he found unacceptable. But that isn't the point. The point is public perception, and the nation watched delegates at the RNC in New York that year wave flip-flops and sing-song along as they did it, not to mention the very effective ad campaign that followed. Many also perceived, rightly or not, CBS' and Dan Rather's reports in late 2004 on the Bush Texas Air National Guard documents 'story' as a fumbling and amateurish attempt to swing the election in John Kerry's favor. It may well have been very sloppy journalism and follow-up on CBS' and Rather's part, but it is that public perception of blatant political meddling by CBS and Rather that lingers to this day. In 2000, when VP Al Gore took the Democratic reins in the presidential race against then-Texas governor George W. Bush, the issues were well-defined between the candidates. But it was the small things that eventually may have sunk the race for the now-Nobel Laureate. His annoying frustrated sighs in the debates were widely ridiculed as raised-nose elitism, and mockery can sink a campaign just as fast as Gary Hart's infidelities with Donna Rice sank his. Al Gore even admitted as much in an interview with Katie Couric earlier this year. And that brings us to 2008. 'LIPSTICK ON A PIG' Most recently it was the 'lipstick on a pig' comment during a speech that has dogged Obama relentlessly. Despite his explanations on the David Letterman show and elsewhere, he cannot get out from under the fact that most Americans interpret his comment, in the context of Sarah Palin's hockey mom joke, as a very undignified personal attack. It has been pointed out that John McCain and many others have also used that common American colloquialism on many occasions, and this is true. But had the situation been reversed vis-a-vis McCain and Hillary, the outrage from the press would have dwarfed what we are seeing today in the MSM on this incident. ATTACK MACHINES, RIGHT AND LEFT One very successful weapon in the Democrats' political arsenal has been the perception that there exists a coordinated right-wing conspiracy ready to 'swiftboat' any Democratic candidate who runs for office at any level. Today, however, this cry rings hollow. While it is true that conservative right-wing pundits like Rush, Hannity and Glenn Beck have it in for Obama, this pales in comparison to what is now perceived as a vast left-wing conspiracy of the media and left-wing blogs like KOS, HuffPo and DU to besmirch, slander and lower into the gutter the political debate in Obama's favor. Recent polls of public distrust and suspicion of the MSM back this perception up. THE 'MUSLIM' FACTOR As illustrated in the cartoon above, and again most recently by Obama's highly publicized gaffe in an interview with George Stephanopuolos, there is a perception that Obama may be hiding his true beliefs beneath the facade of Christianity. Right wing blogs wasted no time in launching political ICBMs at Obama over it. In this DJ's humble opinion this issue is a loser, and pressing it can only hurt John McCain and help Obama in the same way unreasonable rage-tinged attacks against Sarah Palin and her family have helped McCain's campaign. There are enough real political issues and public perceptions to deal with without the Right making a mission out of painting Obama as a Muslim Manchurian Candidate. Like the attacks on Palin, I believe a sustained campaign by the Right on this matter will only be self-defeating, and may even engender sympathy among swing voters who believe, even as I do as a conservative GOPer, that these are unwarranted attacks no less heinous than those being perpetrated upon Sarah Palin and her family by the MSM and the radical Left. HOW OBAMA CAN MAKE THIS A RACE AGAIN First, Obama must do his best Sarah Palin imitation and appear to be above the fracas and even a victim of it, not in the mud slugging it out bare-fisted and no-holds-barred. He would also be well advised to caution his friends in media, on the Left, and even his wife, to back off on their controversial attacks on Sarah Palin and John McCain. They are not winning him any votes, and may even be driving essential voting blocs like women, moderates and Independents to the McCain camp in droves. If the Obama campaign continues to put itself on the defensive as the media, his wife Michelle and even he are brought to task for matters that have nothing to do with the issues, he will continue to falter and eventually fail in his bid for the presidency. THE DEBATES It is here that Barack Obama may regain lost ground, as debates have been hugely influential in deciding past presidential races. Giving credit where credit is due, his witty backhanded compliment of Hillary Clinton during an Iowa debate raised his stock in my eyes at that time as a man who who could think fast on his feet, an essential qualification for the presidency. It has been everything since that has brought him down in my eyes. Debates can also be devastating if mishandled. Obama may be a lost candidate as far as I'm concerned, but that may not be the case for millions of swing voters out there. He can still redeem himself in the eyes of the electorate by rising above the fray, working to tone down the one-sided media assault on Sarah Palin, and change in his favor the negative public perceptions that are now working against him. Bill Clinton pulled that feat off, with both aplomb and chutzpah, to great success in 1992. The real question is, can Obama? The answer to that question may very well decide who occupies the White House as of January 20, 2009. Obama has very little time left to do so, and must act now with the same determination and character with which he won the primaries over Hillary Clinton despite all the damning revelations that dogged him at that time. As a McCain supporter now, you may ask "why in the hell are you giving Obama advice on how to win over McCain?" I'm not, really, It's a sporting matter to me. I would much rather see Ali-Frazier than Tyson-Spinks. Who doesn't want to sit on the edge of their chairs in nail-biting fashion deep into the morning hours after election night as the contest goes into overtime? Should controversy and legal battles over state-by-state elections erupt also, as they did in 2000 all the way to the Supreme Court, that works for me as DJ too! Peace. And don't forget to vote on Election Day! Sometimes one vote can make all the difference.