Op-Ed: Who and What WiIl Decide The Next US President?

Everyone wants in the White House, even John Mellencamp. But who gets in the White House at the end of this race is anybody's guess. For example, the Nielsen viewer ratings were 42.4M for the DNC and 42.4M for the GOP. Who and what will decide this race?

So here we go. The windows are open for sixty days. Step on up. Place your bets. Who's it gonna be, boy? In trying to be a little more objective than Bradley Jacobs of Us Weekly, I will do my best to analyze, in impartial fashion, each candidate's political strengths and weaknesses, the stark contrast in ideologies that drive each party, and possible unknowns that may decide who takes the reins of the White House on January 20, 2009. Based on the ratings, flip a coin. But when voters step into those booths on Election Day, what will be going on inside (and outside) their minds to influence their decision? With Meatloaf as background, I'll try to sort it all out. Get to the bottom of things. Okayyy, here we go. TO DATE OBAMA Came out of the gates flying. Tripped badly about a quarter of the way down the course on Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Arugula, angry Hillaryites, those who cling to guns and religion and typical white people, but has recovered beautifully for the stretch run. When you can stand in front of Greek columns in a manner Godzilla would envy and draw 42.4M viewers after all that, you're back on track. McCAIN The Hare definitely won this Rabbit Race. Didn't even see it coming. I thought Giuliani, maybe even Fred Thompson if he caught on (his Michael Moore counterpoint video got him my vote), but McCain surprised everybody, I think. His choice of Sarah Palin was brilliant, judging by the public's response to her. Didn't see that coming either, but a stupendous move given the continued dissatisfaction of Hillary voters over the bitter primary, and that is a considerable portion of the national voting electorate. Remember, McCain already held a great deal of appeal to moderate Independents (a crucial voting bloc in November) and even of conservative Republicans who saw greater dangers with a liberal liberal than a liberal conservative. WIll Obama also never see him coming until it's too late? But screw all that. Even ballgame now in the late innings. Anything can happen, and probably will. Let's look at the Wild Cards: THE DEBATES As has been the case in American politics for some time now, presidential debates have been HUGELY influential in deciding the next president. Even a single quote can take you the distance: "There he goes again!" McCain is good on his feet, and Obama is a superb orator and public speaker. Might be the closest thing in American political history to the Thrilla in Manila that we may ever see. Conversely, both candidates must be very careful. Even frustrated sighs can kill you, as Al Gore found out. I expect EXTREMELY high viewer ratings for both the Obama-McCain and Biden-Palin debates. What is said at those debates may well just lock it for the next president. WOMEN Being dominant at the voting booth, the candidates must be supple and pliant to the needs of women (as most men besides Marlon Brando in Streetcar must be). The question is, what are the most prominent political needs for women at this moment in time? Really depends on the woman and the issue, and that's just way too much ground to cover. At this moment in time, it appears Sarah Palin may have a huge impact with soccer moms, devout Hillaryites and many other women witnessing the first GOP female VP nominee ever. It sure seems the Hockey Mom and Pit Bull comparison went over big. In this DJ's humble opinion, the ideological political ground is already laid out on most issues. The real wild card here may turn out to be between Sarah Palin and Michelle Obama. Should either woman become the object of scandal or mockery, it may just sink their man's campaign. Michelle has her own issues and might best serve the campaign with a lower profile, but the TrooperGate issue must be laid to rest in full for Sarah Palin before Election Day. IRAQ The political ground here is also staked out. Things have become much more quiet in Iraq, which favors John McCain, having advocated the surge long before Bush. Continued peace and quiet, as well as a growing perception of possible victory over Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, favors McCain even greater. However, Al Qaeda is nothing if not media savvy. Their strategic bombing of Spain on 3/11 may just have tipped the balance of political power in that nation. Would a catastrophic bomb, strategically placed, reignite a conflagration between religious sects in Iraq? Such a scenario may benefit Obama if enough Americans are convinced Iraq is hopeless and it's time to leave. Now. THE UNKNOWNS Anything can happen in the stretch run of a presidential campaign (or any political campaign for that matter) anywhere in the world. IRAN A continued international standoff over Iran may benefit Obama, who can pledge to be the peacemaker by sitting down with both parties. However, Iranian aggression or an Israeli or US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities can change the whole picture. AL QAEDA Should there be another devastating attack on US soil the magnitude of 9/11 (or even far less, like a mini-Beslan), I cannot help but see this situation favoring the experienced McCain. However, the mood of the country is an unpredictable thing. Who would be held to blame? And who would be looked upon as best to handle the situation? SCANDAL AND PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS As most often happens, it is either scandal or perceived over-the-top behavior (like Michael Dukakis in a tank, for example) that can put the nails in your political coffin. That's exactly what Gary Hart asked for when he dared the press to catch him cheating on his wife with Donna Rice, which they did on the appropriately named Monkey Business. For McCain, his scandalous involvement as a member of the Keating Five seems distant somehow today. It is certainly not making the front page of the New York Times. Yet. Actually, I take it back. They already have. Obama, on the other hand, has been dogged with very public scandals involving Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Bernardine Dohrn, Arugula, the brutal primary fight with Hillary and BitterGate. Wright is starting to make himself heard publicly again, and that can only help McCain by reminding people of why they don't like the good Rev in the first place, and whose mentor he once was. Rezko, Wright, Ayers and even others may come out of the woodwork to haunt Obama come Election Day. For the moment, the voting jury appears to be in deliberation. THE MEDIA All that seems to be missing from the so-called journalists of the mainstream media are Obama campaign buttons. However, they are best advised to watch out for landmines. Us Weekly is finding that out the hard way. And despite pushing very hard for John Kerry in 2004, that only resulted in George W. Bush getting more votes than any president in US history. IN CLOSING My real purpose here today is as a public servant, as every member of the press should be; to provide accurate information and allow you the voters to digest it and make your own minds up. I have tried very hard to be objective here, and those of who have read my work know just how difficult that is with me. All presidential elections are important, and even sometimes world-shaking. The winner of this race will decide the course of US policies for at least the next four years. Ideologically, they are very different courses. I won't insult you by rambling about details. You already know what they are. You ARE at DJ, aren't you? Peace to all. And let the best man win. BTW My money's on McCain, 8-5. I think the Palin Factor will carry him over the threshold to victory. Yeah, I know. Objectivity. This IS a betting window, remember?