Recent history suggests that candidates received a small upward bounce in their polling numbers after announcing their choice for VP. However, after announcing that he had selected Joe Biden as his number two, Obama seems to be bucking the trend.
In early August,
Gallup reported that since 1996, after a presumptive presidential nominee announced who he had chosen to be his running mate, he received a small upward bump in his polling numbers.
In 1996, Republican Bob Dole was at 30% in the polls the week prior to announcing he had selected Jack Kemp as his running mate. The numbers the next week went up to 39%. In 2000, Bush was running at 43% in the polls and after announcing he picked Cheney, the numbers went up to 46%. Gore was running at 35% and after announcing his pick, Joe Lieberman, his polling numbers went up to 40%. A similar bump happened in 2004 for John Kerry. Kerry was at 46% in the polls and after announcing he had selected John Edwards as his running mate, he went up to 50%. Now, while it is true that George Bush is the only one who eventually won the election following these so-called VP bumps, the trend is there.
However, in what appears to be a country that is typically fractured along party lines, the national polling numbers this week are the same as they were last week; they show that the race for the President of the United States of America is a statistical
dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, with each of the presumptive candidates receiving the nod from 45% of registered voters.
Last week, Gallup released a poll showing that Obama's modest advantage over McCain had shriveled down to nothing and they were tied at 45% support from registered voters. The Obama camp
responded today to this news: "We don't pay attention to national polls." Heck, even the
McCain camp was predicting a "boffo" Obama bounce in a memo that said "
Obama’s timing allows him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump and sustain press attention for the course of the week".
The anticipation that had been building over the previous few weeks reached a head and Obama finally
introduced the the 65-year-old, six term US Senator from Delaware as his Vice Presidential running mate and the man who he believes "
is ready to step in and be president".
Apparently, registered voters were not impressed as Mr. Obama and his Veep vetting team.
No Bounce For Obama After Announcing Biden
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