Op-Ed: As Putin plays global chess, is Rice the new Iron Lady?

August 8 was not just the start of the Summer Olympics or a lucky number for the host country, (08-08-08). It was a repeat of history, when a dragon and a bear roared to the rest of the world while one of the world’s largest religions looked on.

The game of chess is reported to go back more than a thousand years in Russia. Mastery of the game in the 20th Century was a training ground for players to approach the game with the doctrine of total warfare. Under the USSR, Chess seemed to underpin logic, planning, political, sporting and military doctrine. Many citizens in modern day Russia become misty eyed as they recall some of their folk heroes of Chess. Vladimir Putin, born in 1952, Prime Minister of Russia, former member of the KGB First Directorate, the division of the KGB responsible for foreign operations and the collection of intelligence information, particularly scientific information. After the breakup of the USSR, Putin was appointed Head of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB), one of the successor agencies to the KGB. Putin’s father was described as a “model Communist”. How his father’s political views influenced Putin’s views, shall for the moment be left open to conjecture and speculation. With a Degree in International Politics, and a respectful list of international Honors, including Time Magazine “Person of the Year” in 2007, Vladimir is no fool, and appears to play a mean game of political chess. He also understands the power of oil. Many people in Russia see Putin’s Prowess in judo and quick wit on the public stage as a man of strength and straight talk. As Prime Minister, Putin is constitutionally not the leader of Russia; President Dimitry Medveded is in "charge”, but try and convince a sceptical Russian electorate that. Dimitry has to do a few more push-ups before he earns their respect. President Bush likes to think that he and “Vladimir” are friends. Maybe, maybe not. I do feel that both men engaged in some straight talk during the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies, a conversation that I would have loved to been privy to. Both men understand oil. I think that since the break-up of the USSR and the economic and environment desolation left in it’s wake, Putin has made significant progress. Awash in wealth from oil revenues and international investment some areas of Russia have seen a staggering improvement in their lifestyles. Let us focus on two areas. The citizens of Moscow, where jobs are attracting people from afar, and the Russian Military, left demoralized, with desertion rampant, under trained poor service people, and watching their hardware rust away in disrepair see Putin as their saviour. The invasion of Georgia was the first demonstration of Russian will since the fall of the USSR. Georgia launched a questionable night time artillery barrage against South Ossetia which killed an estimated 2,000 people in the space of a few hours? Why did Georgia feel that it could attack without the prospect of Russian intervention is the subject of another post. Putin took a look at the variables and did a quick SWOT analysis. His military has a new “Raison d'être, he has the money in his Treasury to do what he wants. The United States has a “lame duck” President and an even- even chance of electing a new President that knows little about what the relationship between economic and military realities is. Georgia was a brilliant move by Putin on the global chess board. The response from Washington was rhetoric and humanitarian aid shipments. The dysfunctional European Union had President Nicolas Sarkozy negotiate a peace agreement between the combatants. US Secretary of State and leaders of neighbouring countries, Poland and the three Baltic States visited Georgia to demonstrate solidarity with Georgia. NATO added some rhetoric and will meet this week to review a response. From what ever angle you look at it, NATO is chasing it’s tail for now. Nice move Mr. Putin, you have introduced Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, but you and President Medvedev have certainly not been idly basking in the crushing defeat of Georgian forces, neither are your troops who seem to be in no hurry to leave the conquered land. Immediately after Poland signed it’s participation in the Missile Shield plan with Washington, your top soldier threatens Poland with a nuclear attack. Was that wise or did General Nogovitsyn sit out the Cold War? Now it seems that you want to build a large military base in Syria and deploy nuclear missiles there. Interesting thought. I wonder what our friends in Tel Aviv think about this idea? Place that in context with Iran’s launch of a “dummy satellite” into space yesterday with an indigenous built rocket (read ICBM) and we see the heat has been turned up in the Middle East. I also read that you have some plans to arm your Black Sea Fleet with Nuclear Weapons. Tinkering with your Black Sea Flee is making the former USSR slave, The Ukraine skittish. The Ukraine is pro West, has aspirations to join NATO and just happens to lease you one of their ports, Sevastopol, where you have based your Black Sea Fleet, the same one’s that you want to re-arm? The Ukraine with it’s 50 million citizens is not Georgia, and as you no doubt are aware, the Ukraine was the most robust economic component of the former USSR. But wait, there’s more. Looking just to the south of the USA, you want to send the Russian Navy to Venezuela. Maybe you simply want to show Comrade Chavez and his Military how to fly the 24 jet fighters that he bought from you along with 4 Billion Dollars of other military supplies. Venezuela as a base would go nicely hand in hand with your old friend Cuba and point a dagger north towards the USA. Nice move. But you do have some hurdles don’t you? Issues that will have you gazing at your chess board well into the night. Remember the former Islamic states that were part of the USSR? Chechnya comes to mind. Their population is mostly Sunni Muslims along with the 15% of your population that are Muslim. It took you two wars to pound them into submission, but you couldn't’t take away their Religion. It has to make you wonder just what the Muslim world thinks about you. Russia can supply all the military hardware that Iran and Syria want. Just as long as they don’t turn it against you one day. So, Mr Putin, you have for the time being confused the hell out of the West, put fear into the democratic countries that you feel NATO and the West are using to encroach Mother Russia. But on that fateful day you unleashed your dogs of war on Georgia, your old nemesis China stepped-up to the plate and roared to the world. Russia and China have many things in common today. Robust powering economies, the need to be respected by the rest of the world (read Military Power Projection), environmental devastation, and strange bedfellows to name a few. China cultivates the likes of Iran with a thirst for oil that is repaid to Iran with military technology. China continues to crush any entity that it sees as a threat to the Communist Regime. China wants a partnership with the Middle East while persecuting Muslims in China’s Provinces. How can a “godless” society be a true friend of a god fearing group of nations? It’s bottom line folks. The USA had better elect a leader who has a clear and realistic view of strategic events who can hit the ground running along with a cabinet of like minded people. The EU and NATO need to get their act together and establish a strong line of communication into the Whitehouse. To the West I say, the hounds are at the gate. To Mr Putin, you are one hell of a strategist, but be careful. Not everyone is as cool minded as you. The hotheads, extremists and less savvy politicians could be the downfall of life on this planet. A final thought for today. Secretary Rice at the NATO meetings in Brussels said that “Russia is playing a very dangerous game” A recent quote from John McCain, “I look into Putin’s eyes and I see three letters, a K, a G, and a B” Rice and McCain, there indeed is a strange bedfellow scenario. Is Rice the “Iron Lady” Is McCain the man to contain Russia?