Poll Shows Conservatives, Liberals Almost Tied

The latest Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey shows that the federal Conservatives and the Liberals are almost tied with only a percentage point between them.

A recent survey conducted by Canadian Press/Harris Decima shows that the race for a majority in Canada's parliament is too close to call. {pdf file} Nationally, in the latest week, the Liberals stand at 33%, the Conservatives 32%, 15% for the NDP, 13% for the Greens and 6% for the BQ. Averaging the last three weeks, sees the Conservatives with 33%, Liberals 33%, NDP 15%, 11% for the Greens, and 7% for the BQ. • In Quebec the latest week shows the continuation of a remarkable tightening. The Liberals are at 30%, the BQ 29%, the Conservatives 24%, the Greens 8% and the NDP with 6%. Averaging three weeks, the BQ and the Liberals are tied at 29%, followed by the Conservatives at 22%, 9% for the NDP and 8% for the Green Party. • In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 40%, the Conservatives with 31%, the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 14%. Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 40% compared to the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 13%. • In BC, three week averages show the Conservatives at 32%, Liberals 26%, NDP 26% and the Green Party at 15%. In Atlantic Canada, three-week averages show Liberals with 37%, the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP 21%, and the Greens at 7%. • Harris Decima also probed likely turnout rates of different parties’ supporters. Among those who say they are certain to vote (62%) of the population, the Conservatives lead with 34%, followed by the Liberals with 30%, the NDP 17%, the Greens 11%, and the BQ 8%. • Among those who say they would vote Liberal, 62% say they are certain to go to the ballot booth, and 31% say they are likely. Among those who say they would vote Conservative, 73% are certain they will cast their ballot, and 19% likely. Harris/Decima President Bruce Anderson said,“There are a few things worth taking note of in this set of numbers. First, the Conservatives have not so far seen an “adjournment bounce where their popularity rises as they move out of the fractious environment of the House of Commons. Second, whether spillover from provincial voting trends or something else, the remarkable softening of BQ support is a potential game changing scenario. Third, the numbers reveal the Liberal Party remains competitive after unveiling its Green Shift and sustaining the criticism of it by political opponents. Finally, the Liberals need to be cautious not to overestimate the firmness of their support: their voters are considerably less motivated to turn out on election day, compared to Conservative voters.”