Researchers: By 2048, we’ll all be fat

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The rate of obesity may not reach 100 per cent of the population, but even an upward increase from the current mark, where two-thirds of the population is already overweight, is alarming to doctors, health care providers and the government.

Dr. Lan Liang with Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, a U.S. federal department, is one of the researchers on the study. She told Reuters:

“Genetically and physiologically, it should be impossible for all U.S. adults to become overweight…that is the direction we’re going.”

Data collected between the 1970s and 2004 shows some groups have high rates of obesity. Among African-American women, 78 per cent are overweight or obese.

The definition of overweight and obese, according to the CDC is:

- An adult who has a BMI between 25 and 29.9 is considered overweight.
- An adult who has a BMI of 30 or higher is considered obese.

If the trends continues, 86 per cent of American adults will be overweight by 2030. By 2048, researchers contend that all American adults will be at least mildly overweight.

According to their research, African-American women will all become overweight by 2034 and 90 per cent of Mexican-American men could become overweight.

Liang said that although this prediction may or may not come true, the trend is obvious. She told Reuters:

“This is really intended as a wake-up call to show what could happen if nothing changes.”

Since body weight correlates with healthcare costs, Liang and her team believe rising overweight trends will lead to soaring healthcare costs as well.

They estimate that the healthcare costs directly related to excess pounds will double each decade, reaching $957 billion in 2030 — accounting for one of every six healthcare dollars spent in the U.S. Those financial projections are based on Census data and published estimates of the current healthcare costs attributed to excess weight.

Liang said simple advice like eating less and exercising more is not going to help; she recommends communities have more pedestrian-friendly sidewalks so that people can walk regularly, and she says the food industry needs to offer healthier foods.