Rasmussen issued it's daily report to which showed John McCain and Barack Obama tied at 44 percent each but with 'leaners' added it puts McCain a point above Obama with 47 percent to Obama's 46 percent.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.
This has set off a number of politically geared Democratic blogs to start expressing concern about what some are calling the new "trend".
Some would find the word trend debatable because the although it is 6 or 7 daily polls showing a slight rise for McCain, it is argued that one week isn't necessarily a trend or pattern.
Obama supporting blog,
Americablog, headlines calling these latest poling figures "troubling".
The trend of the tracking polls hasn't been good of late. Rasmussen, which is a quite reputable poll, has Obama and McCain tied today -- and with leaners (basically people who haven't made up their minds, but are forced to choose for the poll), McCain is up by one point. This is the first time that McCain has tied or beaten Obama in the poll, Obama has always been up. Not anymore:
They end their piece by saying "
Just very, very disturbing."
Taylor Marsh, who was once known as the hub for anything Hillary Clinton, jumped on board backing Obama as soon as Clinton suspended her campaign, but has not been shy in criticizing Obama's strategies when she finds fault wit them.
She makes the
following suggestion:
Obama and his team need to quit measuring the White House drapes. He also needs to unleash the 527s from his highfalutin holding pen. Making them stand down is absolutely absurd, especially since Obama's team doesn't seem to have the stomach for this fight.
Gandelman from The Moderate Voice asks the question, "
Are Obama And The Democrats In Trouble Already?
At the end of the piece, they make an observation and ask another question:
We’ve repeatedly said here that a single poll is not as significant as a trend. Between this and the Gallup Daily tracking poll which basically puts the race as a dead heat, we are seeing a trend. The McCain campaign is now on the ascent; the Obama campaign is on the descent. Will this apparent trend continue?
The
Political Machine asks if Democrats "and their supporters have a sick feeling in their gut upon hearing this news?"
They then point out some comparisons by stating:
Could Obama join Democrat luminaries Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry with his ability to blow a summer lead? Conversely, McCain is now officially not tracking Bob Dole in 96 who was never able to close the gap against Clinton. And check out the unfavorables:
They also point out that Summer polls do not necessarily indicate a definite winner or loser, that is only done with the actual presidential election.
Commentary.
In my opinion it is way too soon to call this a "trend" or "pattern", it is a snapshot of what last week looked like. No more, no less.
It is good news for the McCain campaign and those supporting him, no doubt about that, but in an election campaign season where one week can seem like a year, having over 2 months left to go before the election, means that although these snapshots can be indicative of trends and patterns, nothing is written in stone and they should all be taken as just that....a gauge of how public opinion stands at any given moment.
I warned many people when polls all showed Obama on the rise, that McCain supporters should not panic and Obama supporters should not get too cocky and I would reverse that and say the same thing now... Obama supporters would do well to remember these are just snapshots and not panic and I would urge McCain supporters to not pop any champagne yet.
We have a long way to go until the November elections.
