New Earthquake Predictor? Scientists Have Another Clue

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This discovery may just rock the Richter scale.
Scientists have discovered another predictor of earthquakes. It goes along with studying minute geological changes. Those changes could lead to an earthquake prediction of up to 10 hours in advance. That's much faster than the best earthquake predictors we have today, which can only give warnings a few seconds in advance.

"Detecting stress changes before an earthquake has been the Holy Grail in earthquake seismology for years and has motivated our research," said study co-author Paul Silver of the Carnegie Institution of Science's Department of Terrestrial Magnetism. "Researchers have been trying to precisely and continuously measure these velocity changes for decades, but it has been possible only recently, with improved technology, to obtain the necessary precision and reliability."

The study started in 2005. Scientists gathered info from a well dug into the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. Using extremely precise instruments, the scientists were able to measure air going through compressed rock. An amplification of the signals and even more precise equipment developed by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory were able to zero in on the signals.

In the study, scientists were able to see the new signals 10 hours before the Magnitude 3 Christmas Eve earthquake in 2005.

The researchers are hoping to get worldwide cooperation to further the study.

"We're working with colleagues in China and Japan on follow-up studies to determine whether this physical response can be measured in other seismically active regions," said Rice University seismologist Fenglin Niu, the study's lead author. "Provided the effect is pervasive, we still need to learn more about the timing of the signals if we are to reliably use them to warn of impending quakes."