Rashid tells Spiegel: 'Afghanistan is a bigger problem than it was in 2001'

In an interview with German newspaper Spiegel, author Ahmed Rashid said the regional war in Afghanistan is spreading to Pakistan as well and the problems have compounded since 2001.

Ahmed Rashid, 59, is a leading journalist from Pakistan and expert on the Taliban and al- Qaeda. In his recent book "Descent into Chaos" he describes how the Afghanistan war is spreading into neighboring areas like Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian countries. He gave an interview about his book with Susanne Koelbl of Spiegel. Rashid said a part of Pakistan's army and intelligence service are working with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Taliban is gaining in strength in northwestern Pakistan and in Islamabad and in Kabul by exploiting the weaknesses of the politicians and army officials. He warns that there is a double crisis in Pakistan and in Afghanistan. He said the Taliban in both countries are on the offensive and inflicting heavy damages to the coalition troops. Rashid told Spiegel:

This is a strategic decision by the Taliban who see a lame duck American president and also know that it will take until next spring before a new US administration can become effective. They also see a weak and divided Pakistani government and a weak and ineffectual Afghan government.

According to Rashid, Taliban either wants to take over a town or city, announcing an alternative government or forcing one of the coalition partners to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan. By creating chaos it is extending the battle. Taliban also plans to conquer more territory in the North-West Frontier Province, where the Pashtuns a major group in Pakistan lives. Pashtuns have repeatedly helped both Al-Qaeda and Taliban and have been handsomely rewarded for their assistance. They keep helping them more, causing problems for both NATO troops and Pakistan's Army. Rashid gave the following reasons for the Taliban's significant influence in the North-West Frontier Province:

The real fault lies in the Americans' lack of interest in the Taliban after 2001. They insisted again and again that the only enemy was al-Qaeda. This allowed Pakistan to accept the retreating Taliban and give them refuge.

Rashid added the current political situation in Pakistan is not of much help despite the democratic elections that were held recently. Musharraf has still imposed martial law and the elected civil government has no controls with foreign policy; only the military has full control. The rising of oil prices and corresponding high inflation is creating further unrest in the area and it can only benefit Taliban more. He said the only way to stop the Taliban from spreading is to remove them from Pakistan totally and stop giving them further refuge status in Pakistan. Koelbl asked Rashid what mistakes have the Western governments made in Pakistan and Afghanistan? Rashid replied:

The original sin was made when the US abandoned Afghanistan in early 2002 in order to prepare for the war in Iraq. We did not see major reconstruction of the country until 2004 and the window of opportunity for winning over the Afghan people and truly undermining Taliban influence was lost.

Rashid hopes that Afghanistan can be saved with a regional diplomatic approach with the local tribes. But he warned the problem is getting worse as the conflict has spread to neighboring areas such as Pakistan, Central Asia and Iran. Koelbl asked him whether the Taliban will be able to get hold of the nuclear arsenal and pose a danger to the world. Rashid said the Pakistan military is very strong and hierarchical and it will never give away its nuclear arsenal to Taliban. If Rashid's assertions are correct then the amount of money spent in Afghanistan will spiral even further and more human lives will be lost.