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Let's not sell it short - the makings of World War III are staring us square in the eye. It starts with Iran and Israel but could well end with you and I. However, following comprehension is often compromise. Here is the information you need to know.
To say the very least, the war drums are beating. In fact, it is worse than that. Israel wants to attack Iran, and they are assuring the U.S. that they intend to do so very soon.
John McCain has suggested that such a situation could spark World War III, and this (for once) is more than just Republican politics of fear.
Sure, McCain has a stake in saying that WWIII is looming - it is a well documented fact (or rather, an often said statement) that McCain has a much greater understanding of war (compared to Barack Obama). Granted, if diplomacy is considered a tactic of war, perhaps he is not as well versed as is often suggested. However, in terms of military operations, McCain surely does have a leg up on Obama - and thus McCain has a vested interest in suggesting that his war-time skills will be of the utmost importance in the near future. But for once, this is more than political manoeuvring. For once it is the truth. For once (and you won't often hear this writer suggest such a thing), McCain is right. Here is why:
As said before, Israel has openly stated that they intend to attack Iran. Israeli officials feel (and fear) that by 2009 Iran will have nuclear weapons, and that those weapons will be used immediately by Iran to destroy Israel. Israel is asking for American intervention, but have said that if support is not provided that they will undertake the military operation themselves.
Israel, without doubt, does not have the resources to sustain a war with Iran. If they do attack Iran, they will be destroyed by their opponents, unless the U.S. (whom is their closest ally) does not provide military relief (i.e. combat Iranian forces).
Now here is where it gets hairy (and scary).
Iran's closest ally is another powerful country, you may have heard of it; Russia. They have together (Iran and Russia) what is called a 'mutual cooperation agreement' which includes a stipulation that explicitly aims to allow, encourage, and protect the Iranian atomic program.
In short, Russia has agreed to defend Iran - specifically if their nuclear ambitions are derailed by another country.
What's more - Russia has a very similar agreement with their closest ally, and you have heard of them too, they boast 'the million man army'; China. The agreement between Russia and China is far more blunt. They aim to work together militarily and economically in order to counter 'western' hegemony in both fields.
In other words - if Russia is involved in a serious militaristic enterprise wherein they need support, China will back them up.
So now this doomsday World War III scenario begins to unfold. The picture begins to paint itself. But for the sake of clarity, let words be the paintbrush.
Israel does exactly as they have said they will and they attack the nuclear facilities being constructed in Iran.
Iran, in reaction to this, sends forces to attack Israel, surely with the intent of destroying the nation (as this already is an express objective of the Iranian government).
The United States, refusing to sit idly on the sidelines as Israel gets pulverized, deploys troops in Israel to defend against Iranian forces (and probably some into Iran as well).
As Iranian troops are killed, and because the Iranian atomic program has been forcefully halted, Russia involves their military, sending troops to the Israel-Iran area with the intent of defending Iranian troops and objectives.
Israel, along with the U.S., continue their offensive against Iran, and thus must engage Russian troops - this act, by agreement, incites the Chinese government to participate in the war.
Ladies and Gentlemen, we now have World War III.
On one side is Israel, the U.S., along with like minded and mutually interested nations (which would most likely include England, Japan, Canada, and various others), on the second side, Iran, Russia, China, along with like minded and mutually interested states (perhaps countries such as North Korea, some nations created after the end of the USSR, and various others).
It can not be said who the axis and who the allies would be - history is written by the winner. And in a situation where such powerful nations are pitted against each other, it is impossible to, without question, know who the winner would be.
I will say it again - the war drums are beating. And if Israel is serious about attacking Iran, a domino/butterfly effect would likely follow.
To spawn World War I it took the assassination of one prince (Franz Ferdinand) - from there the whole world changed. The point is that sometimes relatively minor events can alter the world forever.
Israel bombing the nuclear facilities of Iran may not seem like something that could send this world to war but - to be frank - it very well could.
It has been said before that there is nothing worse than being the parent of a child born 18 years before a war. Let's hope, for the sake of the children born in 1990, that cooler heads prevail, that sanity reigns supreme, and that diplomacy works. But boy oh boy, the writing sure does appear to be on the wall.
What do you think? Is there a real potential for WWIII to dawn if Israel bombs Iran? Will Israel bomb Iran? If WWIII would Einstein's famous prediction come true ("I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.")
GRMM
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IMHO, I have thought we were staring at a loaded gun for some time that's pointed at there being a WWIII.
Well done!
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Very well done article and summary of allies. I didn't realize Israel had reached the point it's at now and it sounds very, very aggressive.
As for the Chinese Army: I don't know stats off hand but aren't there way more than 1 million soldiers?
If anyone makes a move here it will no doubt cause worldwide chaos. I don't know about WWIII, but it will be as close as we've come I bet. This whole thing makes me uneasy and it makes me sound like a hippy (which I'm not) but I don't understand the war drums here. It's getting out of hand.
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For once I hope Israel puts a muzzle on it. If you know you can't win a war without help and that help hasn't said to go for it don't shot your foot while the enemies blade is aiming for your heart.
But we're talking about people who have been at war with each other for centuries.
The sandbox games are getting out of hand.
Yep, it's time to be digging a foxhole people!
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@ Chris Hogg
Very well done article and summary of allies. I didn't realize Israel had reached the point it's at now and it sounds very, very aggressive.
As for the Chinese Army: I don't know stats off hand but aren't there way more than 1 million soldiers?
If anyone makes a move here it will no doubt cause worldwide chaos. I don't know about WWIII, but it will be as close as we've come I bet. This whole thing makes me uneasy and it makes me sound like a hippy (which I'm not) but I don't understand the war drums here. It's getting out of hand.
I just hope we don't have to look at the movie Red Dawn about China:
Col. Andy Tanner: ...The Russians need to take us in one piece, and that's why they're here. That's why they won't use nukes anymore; and we won't either, not on our own soil. The whole damn thing's pretty conventional now. Who knows? Maybe next week will be swords.
Darryl Bates: What started it?
Col. Andy Tanner: I don't know. Two toughest kids on the block, I guess. Sooner or later, they're gonna fight.
Jed Eckert: That simple, is it?
Col. Andy Tanner: Or maybe somebody just forget what it was like.
Jed Eckert: ...Well, who *is* on our side?
Col. Andy Tanner: Six hundred million screaming Chinamen.
Darryl Bates: Last I heard, there were a billion screaming Chinamen.
Col. Andy Tanner: There *were*.
[he throws whiskey on the fire; it ignites violently, suggesting a nuclear explosion] -
As for the Chinese Army: I don't know stats off hand but aren't there way more than 1 million soldiers?
... way more. -
Good article, but left understated is the reality for Israel. When Iran has the ability, they will move most of Israel into the upper atmosphere. That doesn't leave Israel much room to work in.
As for Russia and China? China is now the largest single benefactor of American buying power.
Russia? They have always been a problem, they will be a problem tomorrow and the day after...
The solution - if there is one, is to put a clamp on Iran, the only nation with the ability to do that is Russia, and they don't seem willing.
Also, Israel can easily defeat Iran at this point. Israel has enough nuke power to make Iran very, very level. The upside to that is that the oil in the ground under Iran will still be there. Think of it as an oil bank.
I began digging a hole last year it should be done this year.
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One other thought is: Russia if 'm not mistaken entered that agreement with Iran prior to finding the large oil deposits in Russia. Russia may not be as willing today as they were a decade ago to side with Iran no matter what.
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Good time to knock the dust off our Nukes and turn night into day .
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@ RCB2875
Good time to knock the dust off our Nukes and turn night into day .
Okay label me a hippie but when is it ever a good time to dust off the nukes? -
@ RCB2875
Good time to knock the dust off our Nukes and turn night into day .
We have to find them first... -
@ KJ (momentsintime)
Okay label me a hippie but when is it ever a good time to dust off the nukes?
In the light of a WWIII situation seems as good a time as any to me. I would not waste placing one boot on foreign soil if there is such a war.
@ Samantha A. Torrence
We have to find them first...
I have a globe =)
I didn't mean terrorists. I meant that if Russia, China, whomever would step up and act in an aggressive manner that would indicate a WWIII -
@ Samantha A. Torrence
We have to find them first...
I do remember seeing an article this week somewhere about our own missing WMD's if memory serves, there were quite a few that were missing. -
@ RCB2875
Good time to knock the dust off our Nukes and turn night into day .
the dust is best removed by dropping from a height of 60,000 ft at re-entry -
@ Samantha A. Torrence
We have to find them first...
@ Gar Swaffar
I do remember seeing an article this week somewhere about our own missing WMD's if memory serves, there were quite a few that were missing.
lol That one flew right over my head.. damned it Sam. =P -
lol it's okay RCB.
They are hoping it is just a "paper work problem" that we have some missing. *rolls eyes* I think our nuclear capabilities need to be guarded by a branch that is a bit more vigilant and not so focused on a new mission. The USAF has devoted most of its focus to unconventional warfare, which is great, but they can't just drop the ball on our nuclear capabilities...
If WW III is comming then so are the end times and that is just one huge shit storm after another.
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Hey! Bill O'Reilly is talking about this right now! lmao
except he is going on about oil prices and calling for a complete boycott of Iran.
so funny, I swear Fox News reads this place cause I see things we cover covered a day or a week later on that network.
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I don't know, if Russia wins their quarter final match tomorrow and goes on to play Germany in the World Soccer final game, we might just have WWIII a bit earlier than anticipated. (Hell, I know this is a serious article ... sorry about that!)
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No offense, but the arguments are poor. Israel might bomb Iran as it bombed Iraq in 1982; but back then nothing happened afterwards and nothing is going to happen this time either. This article talks about Iran as if it has an advanced military. I'm from Iran and as far as I know their military equipments are quite old. How are they going to fight? Using AK47 and a bunch of inaccurate ballistic missiles? The other baseless argument in the article is the involvement of Russia and China in a potential conflict. Why should these countries sacrifice their own national interest for defending Iran? What would they get?
Therefore I assure you that there is no reason to worry about the "children born in 1990". In the case of an open conflict, Iran would turn into sand and Iranian people would be the big losers. Who cares though? Aren't they a bunch of fanatics who support Ahmadinejad? So let's "dust off our Nukes" and solve the problem once and forever. Meanwhile, I have to find a way to send some money to my old Mom in Tehran since she cannot afford to pay her rent. Oh yes! Iranian banks are involved in money laundry and terrorism. So let me think of another way.
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@ Amir
The problem begins when and if Iran builds a nuke. That is if they don't blow themselves up building it.
@ Sam
I sent you a message for a potential article. =)
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Amir,
My husband and I were discussing this and he said basically that same thing, that Iran technologically would not be able to withstand an assault from Israel. I still think Israel would be foolish to go after Iran while their biggest ally, the United States, is going through such hard times. Of course in the end the US would support Israel as it always seems to go. In this case I am half and half. I feel Israel has every right to protect themselves from threat, but although I have admired their conviction, sometimes their aggressiveness is unnerving.
As far as this statement.
Why should these countries sacrifice their own national interest for defending Iran? What would they get? Oil -
@ RCB2875
@ Amir
The problem begins when and if Iran builds a nuke. That is if they don't blow themselves up building it.
@ Sam
I sent you a message for a potential article. =)
I sent you a reply hun. -
Amir - good comment, I liked it. Another thing that is important to note is not what they would get out of it, but rather, what would happen as a result of the war.
If the war did happen and went as they hoped, they may not get anything (other than, as Sue mentioned, some nice oil contracts), but perhaps they would succeed in ending the American empire. That would be reason enough for them to support Iran - not to mention in the name of honouring their agreements.
If the collective forces of Iran, Russia, and China fought the U.S. - in my opinion - it may just be enough to weaken the U.S. armed forces to the point where they would no longer be leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else.
And then consider the fact that population wise, education wise, industry wise, etc, etc, etc, the U.S. has lost ground and become second, third, fourth, or worse in the world; without their military might they would no longer be the global hegemonic state. And that is something that many nations who are ideologically averse to the U.S. to fight for.
And thanks to everyone for reading/commenting/voting.
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Miller,
I am not Sue, I am Sam, but I want to be just like her when I grow up. =) hehe
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Very very sorry - going too quickly... ... Very sorry.
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Don't be, I thought it was frikken hilarious, I am sure Sue will too. =)
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@ G. Robert M. Miller
Amir - good comment, I liked it. Another thing that is important to note is not what they would get out of it, but rather, what would happen as a result of the war.
If the war did happen and went as they hoped, they may not get anything (other than, as Sue mentioned, some nice oil contracts), but perhaps they would succeed in ending the American empire. That would be reason enough for them to support Iran - not to mention in the name of honouring their agreements.
If the collective forces of Iran, Russia, and China fought the U.S. - in my opinion - it may just be enough to weaken the U.S. armed forces to the point where they would no longer be leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else.
And then consider the fact that population wise, education wise, industry wise, etc, etc, etc, the U.S. has lost ground and become second, third, fourth, or worse in the world; without their military might they would no longer be the global hegemonic state. And that is something that many nations who are ideologically averse to the U.S. to fight for.
And thanks to everyone for reading/commenting/voting.
Well you know what they say.. When you have nothing to lose you have everything to gain.
As for education and health care.. why is it they come here for their education and medical procedures that they cant get in their home countries? With the exception of India for the most part?
The U.S. being a hegemonic state(as you claim) is worse than being a communist country that controls it's people like slaves or endorses racial and gender discrimination and persecution in other parts of the world?
The only thing a WWIII wold bring is a world irradiated and useless within day's. If you think the U.S. would just sit back and be taken over you are very mistaken. When push comes to shove in the end there will be no winner. The remainders of surviving peoples will be cast back into a preindustrial revolution state of life globally. -
RCB - Oh I definitely don't think that the U.S. would sit back... I think the U.S. would not be defeated either.
The U.S. is the global hegemon. Most currencies are ranked in comparison to the U.S. dollar (as opposed to in relation to gold). The military is hands down the largest (by a long shot). The U.S. has no qualms about acting unilaterally (something other first-world nations will not do for fear of repercussions)... Niall Ferguson's book Colossus says it a lot better and in much more detail.
As to people coming to the U.S. for education - the U.S. has the absolute best post-secondary education system in the world, no matter the profession.
But for elementary school, and secondary, the U.S. is falling behind many other nations - and that's what I meant earlier; I should have been more specific for sure.
In other words, the Universities and Colleges of the U.S. are the best in the world, the school system before those levels are lacklustre.
Another reason why many immigrants come to the U.S. is for job opportunities that pay well upon completing their education.
And you are very right in the end - there would be no winner.
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A full-blown WW might not happen, but if it did it between the nations mentioned above in the article, it would be very important to note the power and stance of those nations not listed.
This is a political minefield and war to this extent would have to include Europe, the rest of Asia, the rest of the Middle East, Canada (who would be torn in 50 different directions) and the highly effective body that is the United Nations.
A war between Israel and Iran would domino into every nation's political arena because everyone has allies and enemies who would be involved. There would be countless nations that would have to react if Israel struck Iran (the other Middle Eastern nations, especially) and countless nations that would react if Iran got too aggressive with Israel.
As far as supporting Israel, I don't think the U.S. will make any move of this magnitude during election season, and I can't see this being the first move of a new president, either.
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@ Chris Hogg
A full-blown WW might not happen, but if it did it between the nations mentioned above in the article, it would be very important to note the power and stance of those nations not listed.
This is a political minefield and war to this extent would have to include Europe, the rest of Asia, the rest of the Middle East, Canada (who would be torn in 50 different directions) and the highly effective body that is the United Nations.
A war between Israel and Iran would domino into every nation's political arena because everyone has allies and enemies who would be involved. There would be countless nations that would have to react if Israel struck Iran (the other Middle Eastern nations, especially) and countless nations that would react if Iran got too aggressive with Israel.
As far as supporting Israel, I don't think the U.S. will make any move of this magnitude during election season, and I can't see this being the first move of a new president, either.
Unless Bush refuses to vacate. If he calls for martial law in the United States because of this as a threat then he can stay in power longer. -
@ KJ (momentsintime)
Unless Bush refuses to vacate. If he calls for martial law in the United States because of this as a threat then he can stay in power longer.
I wouldn't hold my breath on it. I don't think Bush wants the headache -- he's too close to getting more time to golf =) -
@ Chris Hogg
I wouldn't hold my breath on it. I don't think Bush wants the headache -- he's too close to getting more time to golf =)
LOL
Or to find a nice deserted island and make sure he never gets brought up on war crimes in a nation that could do something about it. -
I completely agree with the educational problems in the grade school levels. There is a reason for this and that is that the power of the teachers have been all but striped away. The teachers have become more worried about lawsuits from overprotective parents that won't demand their precious little child to behave in class and respect the teachers so they just have free reign at school as though they were in the streets.
The system concentrates on passing specific tests rather than actually teaching.. and when they have to spend half the time escorting unruly kids to the principle or talking to themselves because a few are allowed to talk freely disrupting the whole class and no one gets to hear what is being taught. It's just a horrific mess.
I do not agree with a lot of what the U.S. government does in regards to interference abroad and I think most of the population feels the same way. But you have political responsibilities and or expectations to one and get sucked into or are expected to react to certain things in another, from other leaders and from our own citizens. A direct example of this would be the current situation in Iraq, ect.. and Darfur. Most of the people that want us to leave the middle east are saying we should be sending our military to Darfur and Sudan! Well we are damned if we do and damned if we don't. The biggest problem with the government is that we have career politicians that will cater to special interests with money and a following and the reckless spending patronizing their constituents to gain popularity and secure their positions.
The other major problem is the party system has become a roadblock in getting things done that really need to be done with the Dems not passing things the Rep.'s want unless they in turn do something for them and vice versa. Among others.
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@ G. Robert M. Miller
RCB - Oh I definitely don't think that the U.S. would sit back... I think the U.S. would not be defeated either.
The U.S. is the global hegemon. Most currencies are ranked in comparison to the U.S. dollar (as opposed to in relation to gold). The military is hands down the largest (by a long shot). The U.S. has no qualms about acting unilaterally (something other first-world nations will not do for fear of repercussions)... Niall Ferguson's book Colossus says it a lot better and in much more detail.
As to people coming to the U.S. for education - the U.S. has the absolute best post-secondary education system in the world, no matter the profession.
But for elementary school, and secondary, the U.S. is falling behind many other nations - and that's what I meant earlier; I should have been more specific for sure.
In other words, the Universities and Colleges of the U.S. are the best in the world, the school system before those levels are lacklustre.
Another reason why many immigrants come to the U.S. is for job opportunities that pay well upon completing their education.
And you are very right in the end - there would be no winner.
The U. S. Century began to end in 1981. In 2001 it was kaput... -
@ sam but although I have admired their conviction, sometimes their aggressiveness is unnerving.
aggressiveness may be a bit easier to come by when the rockets have rarely stopped for more than two days at a time. -
What is indicative is that under Putin, Russia has become slighly more aggressive. Bolstered by oil power it has started flexing its muscles. China, we know is developing rapidly into a twin of Cold War U.S.S.R. The next war will be not for land but for oil, religious ideals or water (who knows, perhaps all three!).
It is scary indeed.
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Israel has become a "terror state". When you're a criminal and you're arrested, you lose your rights. Israel could lose her rights if they keep up the threats to Iran, and the terror they are inflicting DAILY on Palestinians.
Threatening Iran is a terrorist act by definition.
Threatening a Shoah (Holocaust) is not only a terror act, but it is the most disgusting, horrifying, despicable, most evil thing that can come out of someones mouth.
Shame on Israel. If they attack Iran...IMO, they no longer deserve a state.
Americans should be weary of WW3 - it is a war you cannot win.
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@ phree
Israel has become a "terror state". When you're a criminal and you're arrested, you lose your rights. Israel could lose her rights if they keep up the threats to Iran, and the terror they are inflicting DAILY on Palestinians.
Threatening Iran is a terrorist act by definition.
Threatening a Shoah (Holocaust) is not only a terror act, but it is the most disgusting, horrifying, despicable, most evil thing that can come out of someones mouth.
Shame on Israel. If they attack Iran...IMO, they no longer deserve a state.
Americans should be weary of WW3 - it is a war you cannot win.
Not only is it a war the U.S. cannot win, It's a war the world cannot win.
"I don't know what WWIII will be fought with but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones." Einstein. -
I agree with those doubting the scenario. This is a worse case scenario which has very little likelyhood of happeneing.
In fact Russia and China have been rivals for a long time. As Russian population level fall, so the empty east looks more and more vulnerable to Chines annexation.
China in particular has shown little interest in waging war beyond its immediate sphere on interest. Communists assume that the "capitalist imperialist hegmonists" will destroy themselves and they do not have to do a thing but watch. They are more likely to sit it out hoping the others will destroy or weaken each other.
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@ phree
Israel has become a "terror state". When you're a criminal and you're arrested, you lose your rights. Israel could lose her rights if they keep up the threats to Iran, and the terror they are inflicting DAILY on Palestinians.
Threatening Iran is a terrorist act by definition.
Threatening a Shoah (Holocaust) is not only a terror act, but it is the most disgusting, horrifying, despicable, most evil thing that can come out of someones mouth.
Shame on Israel. If they attack Iran...IMO, they no longer deserve a state.
Americans should be weary of WW3 - it is a war you cannot win.
How very Orwellian. -
@ Sam
My comment wasn't about whether Israel has the right to attack Iran or not. That's a separate issue and I agree that Israel has every right to protect itself.
What I'm talking about is the overblown threat of Iranian nuclear capability. Let's be honest. In the worst case scenario that Iran manages to build nukes and decides to use them, it would be a matter of minutes before its complete destruction.
@ G. Robert M. Miller
I don't agree with you. I think if China wanted to challenge the US hegemony this way, they would go after Taiwan first. The US is losing its edge as a result of economic globalization.
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Fancy you writing this article now Rob. Just Monday I heard this guy on the radio and I was blown away by what he was saying (Russia, China, Iran versus Israel) - then here I am reading it from you and I'm sure you've never met (or maybe even read one of this Canadian's 26 books). More here. -
An excellent article. The China - Iran connection is something that I have given lectures on. I even wrote a book on the subject, but I am not here for self promotion. I just want people to take a hard look at the situation and think.
As I read your article there were so many scenarios going through my mind, that I need to separate some facts from probable reaction. Unfortunately I see no fiction in what you wrote about.
That is the frightening part.
Let's start with some facts and how they play out in the real world. The government of Iran has consistently declared their goal is to wipe Israel off the map. I believe that they are serious. If you look back to the Cold War in the post Khrushchev era, I can't recall either side making such a declaration. It would have been insane to do so and would invite a first strike from you opponent. The MAD concept worked. Iran is serious, and Israel does feel threatened. The military exercise that Israel recently engaged in over the Mediterranean, was good training for those involved and had some good political spin. So now most of the world thinks that Israel has telegraphed how the attack will take place. I don't think so. The distances involved are too great and Russian spy satellites would eliminate any element of surprise. A large logistical attack as demonstrated in the exercise would leave too much of Israel exposed to a counter attack. Israel needs stealth, speed and have the ability to neutralise a counter attack whilst engaging the prime target. That is a big task. History has shown that Israel is quite capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat and doing what people think is impossible. A sneak attack on Iran is quite a big rabbit.
Moving along to what countries will be on the red and blue team is also interesting. Yes, I do believe that China will be there defending Iran, and what an odd couple they are. Here is China, a state enforced godless society, becoming an ally of an Islamic state. What do they have in common? NOTHING. Iran needs China's weapons technology and muscle behind them and China needs their OIL.
China has an insatiable need for resources to power their economy, that in turn will build the most powerful military machine the world has seen.
Has anyone noticed that China started WWIII quite some time ago? It started when they took jobs away from just about every market in the world, bought foreign companies and resources with impunity and are sitting on Trillions of US Dollars in cash reserves.
If push came to shove between China and the USA, China would pull their cash out of the USA before any Chinese missile left the ground.
Look at it from either perspective. It's all about oil as one commentator pointed out.
Yes, Iran and Israel are both serious, but when the middle east erupts in a conflagration the victors will emerge from outside the middle east to claim the oil.
China does not yet have the military transport capability to engage in a war so far from China. I agree with other commentators here, that China would take a shot at Taiwan and divert US Forces away from the middle east.
China needs the middle east oil fields more than anyone else. That's when the heavy guns come out.
There is a fly in the ointment that both Russia and China are well aware of. The US Military is firmly ensconced in the middle east. Do not doubt the power of the US Military regardless of your opinion of whether or not the US should be in Iraq.
The USA also needs oil.
So, I think that we have two flash points in the world that are reaching midnight on the doomsday clock. The middle east will probably erupt first and be quickly followed with fighting in the Asia Pacific Region.
As for Russia. They have lost the ability to wage war far from their shores, but they have and will continue to sell their military hardware to an oil rich middle east.
But on the other hand, Russia is very wary of China.
Deep in the bowels of the Kremlin I am sure that someone has figured just how dangerous it is to share a border with China.
Enough from me for now. I would enjoy reading other opinions on this subject.
Cheers. Mike.
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@ Gar Swaffar
How very Orwellian.
Its nothing more than the truth, plain and simple.
Let's start with some facts and how they play out in the real world. The government of Iran has consistently declared their goal is to wipe Israel off the map.
I thought you wanted to start off with facts???
The Iranians have not attacked anyone in hundreds of years. Their GOAL is to wipe Israel off the map?? Thats not true at all. They speak of ZIONIST criminals, you know the people who are actually the biggest threat to the world, and to traditional Jews.
The "wipe Israel off the map" quote was a HOAX.
You're telling us you wrote a book about it yet didn't know that? Pretty big fact to miss. -
Phree,
I did and have. Do your research. The "hoax" as you call it is part of the weekly rants from members of the Iranian government. It has also become the mantra for a number of groups who continually attack Israel. The"hoax" story hides behind the possibility of being misunderstood or confused in the translation. Nevertheless it was first broadcast in that format in English by the Islamic Republic News Agency, which as you would know, is the media arm of the Iranian government. Regardless of who actually said what, the event generated considerable friction and began to snowball to this day, as the following link indicates:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad_and_Israel
At the end of the day, both sides are contributing to a "flash point" in the world. One that will be manipulated by outside influence. But that will not matter to the dead. How much more blood must be spilled in the middle east for all participants to say ENOUGH? -
@ Michael Squires
An excellent article. The China - Iran connection is something that I have given lectures on. I even wrote a book on the subject, but I am not here for self promotion. I just want people to take a hard look at the situation and think.
As I read your article there were so many scenarios going through my mind, that I need to separate some facts from probable reaction. Unfortunately I see no fiction in what you wrote about.
That is the frightening part.
Let's start with some facts and how they play out in the real world. The government of Iran has consistently declared their goal is to wipe Israel off the map. I believe that they are serious. If you look back to the Cold War in the post Khrushchev era, I can't recall either side making such a declaration. It would have been insane to do so and would invite a first strike from you opponent. The MAD concept worked. Iran is serious, and Israel does feel threatened. The military exercise that Israel recently engaged in over the Mediterranean, was good training for those involved and had some good political spin. So now most of the world thinks that Israel has telegraphed how the attack will take place. I don't think so. The distances involved are too great and Russian spy satellites would eliminate any element of surprise. A large logistical attack as demonstrated in the exercise would leave too much of Israel exposed to a counter attack. Israel needs stealth, speed and have the ability to neutralise a counter attack whilst engaging the prime target. That is a big task. History has shown that Israel is quite capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat and doing what people think is impossible. A sneak attack on Iran is quite a big rabbit.
Moving along to what countries will be on the red and blue team is also interesting. Yes, I do believe that China will be there defending Iran, and what an odd couple they are. Here is China, a state enforced godless society, becoming an ally of an Islamic state. What do they have in common? NOTHING. Iran needs China's weapons technology and muscle behind them and China needs their OIL.
China has an insatiable need for resources to power their economy, that in turn will build the most powerful military machine the world has seen.
Has anyone noticed that China started WWIII quite some time ago? It started when they took jobs away from just about every market in the world, bought foreign companies and resources with impunity and are sitting on Trillions of US Dollars in cash reserves.
If push came to shove between China and the USA, China would pull their cash out of the USA before any Chinese missile left the ground.
Look at it from either perspective. It's all about oil as one commentator pointed out.
Yes, Iran and Israel are both serious, but when the middle east erupts in a conflagration the victors will emerge from outside the middle east to claim the oil.
China does not yet have the military transport capability to engage in a war so far from China. I agree with other commentators here, that China would take a shot at Taiwan and divert US Forces away from the middle east.
China needs the middle east oil fields more than anyone else. That's when the heavy guns come out.
There is a fly in the ointment that both Russia and China are well aware of. The US Military is firmly ensconced in the middle east. Do not doubt the power of the US Military regardless of your opinion of whether or not the US should be in Iraq.
The USA also needs oil.
So, I think that we have two flash points in the world that are reaching midnight on the doomsday clock. The middle east will probably erupt first and be quickly followed with fighting in the Asia Pacific Region.
As for Russia. They have lost the ability to wage war far from their shores, but they have and will continue to sell their military hardware to an oil rich middle east.
But on the other hand, Russia is very wary of China.
Deep in the bowels of the Kremlin I am sure that someone has figured just how dangerous it is to share a border with China.
Enough from me for now. I would enjoy reading other opinions on this subject.
Cheers. Mike.
Interesting perspective...welcome aboard and looking forward to reading more of your writing.
@ phree
Its nothing more than the truth, plain and simple.
I thought you wanted to start off with facts???
The Iranians have not attacked anyone in hundreds of years. Their GOAL is to wipe Israel off the map?? Thats not true at all. They speak of ZIONIST criminals, you know the people who are actually the biggest threat to the world, and to traditional Jews.
The "wipe Israel off the map" quote was a HOAX.
You're telling us you wrote a book about it yet didn't know that? Pretty big fact to miss.
The Squires named his sources, we're still waiting for you to name yours. Where'd you get your FACTS from again? -
The United States, refusing to sit idly on the sidelines as Israel gets pulverized, deploys troops in Israel to defend against Iranian forces
I have to ask (not having read every word in this thread) how can it be that Iran will "send forces" to attack Israel in retaliation?
The way I see it, the same air sortie distance applies to the Iranian forces as it does to Israel. If it is difficult for either side to make the trip, what makes anyone think the Iranians will have a better time of it? Have they also done the 900 mile "dress rehearsals?" They certainly are not going to send ground forces straight through Iraq and Jordan with the US Army standing there are they?
The way I see it, Israel will attack Iran (about Christmas 2008) and by the time McCain is firmly ensconced in the White House, He will deal with Iran's silliness. If I were in the seat, I think the best bet would be to remove the Iranian president and rely upon the fact that there likely are many good people in Iran who do not wish to become totally isolated from the rest of the world.
One last point - Iran threatens to cut off their contribution to the world supply of oil.... isn't that like a grocer in a small town in America saying that if people don't do like he wishes he will close his store? How long would Iran be able to sustain any sort of war with no access to the global banking system and having no income from the sale of oil? Add a Comment
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Opinion: Houston, We Have a Very, Very Serious Problem
