To say the very least, the war drums are beating. In fact, it is worse than that.
Israel wants to attack Iran, and they are assuring the U.S. that they intend to do so very soon.
John McCain has suggested that
such a situation could spark World War III, and this (for once) is more than just Republican politics of fear.
Sure, McCain has a stake in saying that WWIII is looming - it is a well documented fact (or rather, an often said statement) that McCain has a much greater understanding of war (compared to Barack Obama). Granted, if diplomacy is considered a tactic of war, perhaps he is not as well versed as is often suggested. However, in terms of military operations, McCain surely does have a leg up on Obama - and thus McCain has a vested interest in suggesting that his war-time skills will be of the utmost importance in the near future. But for once, this is more than political manoeuvring. For once it is the truth. For once (and you won't often hear this writer suggest such a thing), McCain is right. Here is why:
As said before, Israel has openly stated that they intend to attack Iran. Israeli officials feel (and fear) that by 2009 Iran will have nuclear weapons, and that those weapons will be used immediately by Iran to destroy Israel. Israel is asking for American intervention, but have said that if support is not provided that they will undertake the military operation themselves.
Israel, without doubt, does not have the resources to sustain a war with Iran. If they do attack Iran, they will be destroyed by their opponents, unless the U.S. (whom is their closest ally) does not provide military relief (i.e. combat Iranian forces).
Now here is where it gets hairy (and scary).
Iran's closest ally is another powerful country, you may have heard of it; Russia. They have together (Iran and Russia) what is called a
'mutual cooperation agreement' which includes a stipulation that explicitly aims to allow, encourage, and protect the Iranian atomic program.
In short, Russia has agreed to defend Iran - specifically if their nuclear ambitions are derailed by another country.
What's more - Russia has a
very similar agreement with their closest ally, and you have heard of them too, they boast 'the million man army'; China. The agreement between Russia and China is far more blunt. They aim to work together militarily and economically in order to counter 'western' hegemony in both fields.
In other words - if Russia is involved in a serious militaristic enterprise wherein they need support, China will back them up.
So now this doomsday World War III scenario begins to unfold. The picture begins to paint itself. But for the sake of clarity, let words be the paintbrush.
Israel does exactly as they have said they will and they attack the nuclear facilities being constructed in Iran.
Iran, in reaction to this, sends forces to attack Israel, surely with the intent of destroying the nation (as this already is an express objective of the Iranian government).
The United States, refusing to sit idly on the sidelines as Israel gets pulverized, deploys troops in Israel to defend against Iranian forces (and probably some into Iran as well).
As Iranian troops are killed, and because the Iranian atomic program has been forcefully halted, Russia involves their military, sending troops to the Israel-Iran area with the intent of defending Iranian troops and objectives.
Israel, along with the U.S., continue their offensive against Iran, and thus must engage Russian troops - this act, by agreement, incites the Chinese government to participate in the war.
Ladies and Gentlemen, we now have World War III.
On one side is Israel, the U.S., along with like minded and mutually interested nations (which would most likely include England, Japan, Canada, and various others), on the second side, Iran, Russia, China, along with like minded and mutually interested states (perhaps countries such as North Korea, some nations created after the end of the USSR, and various others).
It can not be said who the axis and who the allies would be - history is written by the winner. And in a situation where such powerful nations are pitted against each other, it is impossible to, without question, know who the winner would be.
I will say it again - the war drums are beating. And if Israel is serious about attacking Iran, a domino/butterfly effect would likely follow.
To spawn World War I it took the assassination of one prince (Franz Ferdinand) - from there the whole world changed. The point is that sometimes relatively minor events can alter the world forever.
Israel bombing the nuclear facilities of Iran may not seem like something that could send this world to war but - to be frank - it very well could.
It has been said before that there is nothing worse than being the parent of a child born 18 years before a war. Let's hope, for the sake of the children born in 1990, that cooler heads prevail, that sanity reigns supreme, and that diplomacy works. But boy oh boy, the writing sure does appear to be on the wall.
What do you think? Is there a real potential for WWIII to dawn if Israel bombs Iran? Will Israel bomb Iran? If WWIII would Einstein's famous prediction come true ("I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.")
GRMM
