Op-Ed: With DNC Disaster Averted, Where Will Obama Go From Here?

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As DJ Sam T. has reported, Obama has officially clinched the nomination of the Democratic Party for president in the general election.

Now the REAL questions can begin.

Let's break it down:

HILLARY CLINTON

Will Hillary be Obama's running mate for the general race? Despite all the bad blood, it remains a viable possibility. Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush engaged in a blood feud in the GOP nomination race in 1980, yet Reagan chose Bush as his VP, who then served loyally for eight years at Reagan's side before being elected president himself.

There are a lot of upsides to Hillary as VP. it's doubtful that Hillary would turn down a chance to return to the White House after an eight-year hiatus even as VP, and it may placate the 25% of alienated Hillary supporters who have promised to vote for McCain should Hillary not be the nominated candidate. Joining Hillary and Obama voters together would also provide a major challenge for John McCain in the general election.

On the flip side, if Hillary is shut out deliberately, that may renew hostilities toward Obama from Hillary supporters and cost him a lot of votes in the general, perhaps decisively.

THE DNC CONVENTION

Though going into the Denver convention in August may seem like still waters compared to what it would have been had the nomination not been secured by either candidate, there may still yet be contretemps inside and chaos without.

If Hillary and Obama enter hand in hand, it could be a Liberal Democrat lovefest.

If Hillary is shut out, look out.

On the outside, a number of organizations including Code Pink and Recreate 68 have promised to make their presence known outside the convention, perhaps even violently. Many of the groups to be represented are disillusioned if not downright disgusted with the failure of DC Democrats to live up to their promises when they were swept into power in 2006, particularly with regard to the Iraq War.

THE GENERAL CAMPAIGN

This is where the rubber will meet the road for Obama. If Democrats and Independents rally behind him as they did in force in Portland, Oregon despite all his missteps and problems, he may have a pretty good shot.

But you can be sure the GOP will be hammering away at Obama's troubling associations with some very unhinged characters like Jeremiah Wright, Michael Pfleger and Wiliam Ayers. Any more damaging revelations on top of those he has already had to contend with, like the BitterGate scandal, may be the last straw that breaks his political back.

Yet despite all the setbacks, Obama has been amazingly resilient. He might just pull it off.

THE MCCAIN FACTORS

Like Obama, McCain is not without his detractors. Most conservative Republicans see him as little better than either candidate on illegal immigration, securing the border, amnesty and passing huge Global Warming tax bills.

Will they decide to sit out the election, or vote for Obama out of spite at the GOP, which they now see traveling the same progressive road as the Democratic Party?

Or will they have a change of heart before the general election and see Obama as an extreme liberal who has to be defeated, even if McCain is the only alternative?

A lot could depend on the mindset of Republican and Independent conservatives come November, and on what developments transpire in both general campaigns leading up to it.

THE DEBATES

From Lincoln-Douglas to Reagan-Carter, public debates between party candidates have had an enormous effect on the American electorate. Key catch phrases can fairly or unfairly boost or tarnish a candidate beyond repair.

Will McCain have a 'There He Goes Again' moment with Obama? Or will Obama have an 'It's The Economy, Stupid' moment with McCain?

THE IRAQ WAR

If the Iraq War continues on its present course, i.e. lowered violence and growing stability, that may prove troublesome for Obama, who has promised precipitous withdrawal, or remind voters of cries of defeat by prominent Democrats like Harry Reid for a war that America may seem to be winning.

Also, McCain has criticized Bush on the war as well, and wanted a surge years ago. In that respect he is ahead of the curve. McCain's military service and decades-long tenure may also play in his favor.

That said, renewed hostilities or violence could tip the situation Obama's way. Remember also that Al Qaeda and other jihadi groups are aware of this situation as well, and may be planning spectacular attacks to coincide with the election.

THE ECONOMY AND GAS PRICES

A lot has to do with perceptions. If the economy is perceived to be humming along and gas prices dip, that may favor McCain. If the opposite is true come November, that may favor Obama. Bad economic news or astronomical gas prices may also result in a radical change in the makeup of Congress if the American voting public takes on a 'throw the bums out' mentality in the wake of it.

INTANGIBLES

Considering how much has transpired in the Hillary and Obama campaigns in just the past three months, it is impossible to tell what factors may sink or lift either McCain or Obama. A new war, a domestic crisis, a spectacular terrorist attack in America or any other unseen events may all serve to radicalize the American population in one direction or the other in the five months leading up to the November elections.

Here's one intangible to consider. Back in 2004, UK papers like the Guardian started letter-writing campaigns to voters in Ohio to support Kerry. They backfired miserably.

Here's some letters the Guardian and others received from less-than-thankful Ohioans:

"Real Americans aren't interested in your pansy-ass, tea-sipping opinions."

"We don't need weenie-spined Limeys meddling in our presidential election."

"If you want to save the world, begin with your own worthless corner of it."

An Oct. 15 headline in Ohio's Springfield News-Sun read: "Butt out Brits, voters say."

"I found it quite insulting," said Terry Brown, a retiree in Springfield who received a Guardian letter. "I was under the impression we settled the matter of how we vote and who we vote for in 1776."

You DO remember how critical a state Ohio was in 2004, right?

If the Democrats are smart, they'll tell their friends across the pond "thanks, but no thanks" this time around.

Given what we've seen so far, it should prove to be one hell of a ride, and provide a lot of fodder for the media and DJs like us to continue to report and opine on.

Stay tuned. It should be lively.