Predicting A Future California Earthquake

If California were to suffer an earthquake like last week's 7.9-magnitude quake that hit China would the state's residents fare any better? That question has been detailed by a group of earthquake scientists.

(What follows is speculation, not fact or a current event.) Today Los Angeles fell as a 7.8-magnitude earthquake shook the ground for three minutes at 10 this morning. The city is in flames and at least 1,800 have been declared dead. Cars fell out of the sky as a section of Interstate 15 broke apart. Rescue teams are making their way through the rubble to search for survivors. Most of those who died perished in house fires. There are too many for the LAFD to handle, including several of the stations that are engulfed in flames. There are reports of raw sewage flowing into local waterways as sewer pipes burst during the impact of the quake. Several areas are without water because of water pipes breaking, hampering the LAFD's attempts to battle the city's blazes. Many of the injured are being treated in the parking areas of local hospitals. With more than 50,000 vying for space in the emergency rooms local hospitals are calling for any uninjured health care workers to help with the overflow. There are reports of about 300 buried under their former high-rise condo that collapsed during the quake. The governor has called for a State of Emergency. President Mickey Mouse has also declared the area a state of emergency and is sending in the National Guard to help restore order. The damage is already being estimated at $85 billion. More details will follow as they come in. This type of scenario was worked out by a team of 300 scientists, governments, first responders and industries. The team also performed a state-wide drill earlier this year to help prepare local emergency teams. The report was released on Thursday in Washington, D.C. by the U.S. Geological Survey and California Geological Survey. The chances of this type of scenario is very real.

USGS geophysicist Kenneth Hudnut said scientists wanted to create a plausible narrative and avoided science fiction like the 2004 TV miniseries "10.5" about an Armageddon quake on the West Coast.

"We didn't want to stretch credibility," said Hudnut. "We didn't want to make it a worst-case scenario, but one that would have major consequences."

The figures in the stimulus take in the assumption that the state takes no continued action to retrofit buildings that are not up to code. The study was based on the San Andreas Fault. Risk analysts used the data of earlier quakes to help come up with the scenario.