Op-Ed: In Burma, condemnation by cyclone will blow away the generals

The nation has been crushed by the cyclone. 46 years of military rule have turned Burma into an obsolete nation. The infrastructure has been utterly smashed. Croplands are under water, and Rangoon itself is devastated.

(I’ll never call Burma “Mayanmar” until a democratically elected government says that’s what they want to call it.) The densely populated Irrawaddy delta area, said to have a population of up to 15 million people, lacks basic amenities. The images now emerging are horrendous. The 2004 tsunami was bad, but not on this scale. There’s also a serious risk of cholera, dengue fever, malaria, and other diseases arising within the next week. To make things a lot tougher, the number of people affected is at the high end of the scale that global aid can handle. Add to that roads which were pretty primitive to begin with, and no local infrastructure. The rice crop, staple food, was on the point of harvest, and is assumed to be almost entirely lost. Food prices in Rangoon are rising, and looting has now been reported. Spiegel Online, reporting a call from a Burmese dissident:

"It looks like the end of the world here," he shouted into the telephone when he finally got a call through to Singapore on Tuesday morning and could tell SPIEGEL ONLINE about the situation in Rangoon after Cyclone Nargis wreaked havoc on the city. "Everything is destroyed, we have no drinking water and nothing to eat. Tens of thousands must be dead. Hundreds of thousands are homeless."

And what is the government doing in response?

"They're clearing the streets in the rich neighborhoods," the dissident said. Then the line went dead.

In the early stages after the cyclone, the military was conspicuous on TV, but notably absent on the ground. The Christian Science Monitor:

Meanwhile, the regime faced mounting criticism for its alleged neglect in preparing for the disaster. With Burma's tightly controlled state media offering scant details, it was unclear how the government was directing its emergency response.

But the Burmese Army, which mobilized quickly and harshly to suppress democratic protests last September, has been described as slow to offer assistance now by some observers, while state authorities are accused of failing to provide shelter information despite knowing that cyclone Nargis would set down Saturday with destructive force.

“Neglect” is also obvious from the destruction. The last 46 years haven’t been spent on building up resources and infrastructure, obviously. They also neglected to update the country from 1962. A few observations from the media images: 1. The buildings in Rangoon are of roughly 70s standard, at best. There are few modern buildings. The majority date from the prosperous era prior to the military takeover. The architectural styles are quite old. 2. The amount of architectural damage is further evidence of old buildings being unable to handle the 3. The cropland has no diversion drainage. The fact that the water is still sitting there, days later, means that agriculture is in as primitive a state as the rest of the country. 4. Drainage in the urban areas is also apparently poor. 5. Roads in the Irrawaddy area are dirt tracks. 6. The area is full of rivers, on a flood plain. It’s like Holland, right on sea level, with the water table just below the soil. There’s no indication whatever of any modern development in the area. No sea walls, or any coastal protection. All of which raises the question what the military junta have been doing for the last 46 years. The nation is visibly lacking modern agricultural, urban and coastal facilities. So where did the last few decades’ worth of national income go? In the midst of poverty, the junta managed to build a whole new capital based on the findings of an astrologer. Nothing like a good real estate investment, based on sound economic principles. Interestingly, the new capital/military Disneyland was built just as food and petrol became hot issues in Burma, as prices rose and incomes become even less able to cope with costs. The Telegraph UK has some really grim pictures of Burma’s new problem, and a page full of related articles, to which a few quotes wouldn't do justice. According to the Telegraph, the death toll could reach 63,000. It also has an article indicating the really classy, hypermodern, upmarket, politics within the military government. The former dictator, Ne Win died under house arrest at the age of 91:

Members of the military government that he created shunned his hurried cremation and refused to comment on the passing of the man who during nearly three decades in power combined brutal suppression, crude socialism and superstition.

Ne Win lost his elder statesman status earlier this year when his son-in-law and three grandsons were given death sentences for plotting to overthrow the government with the aid of renegade officers and black magic.

Although not implicated, Ne Win was put under de facto house arrest in March. Relatives said he died in his lavish lakeside villa where he had been confined along with his favourite daughter Sanda, a wealthy businesswoman who may now find herself pursued by the ruling generals

. This no doubt charming lady may not have to worry about the generals for too long. Astrologers may not be great economists or politicians, but cyclones apparently are. This storm may achieve what decades of ineffectual politics and diplomacy have failed to do. The consequences of the cyclone haven’t yet been fully appreciated. Burma is now an economic cripple. It can’t survive as it has in the past. The primitive economy can’t support a trashed nation. Even before the cyclone, it was at breaking strain. The generals may find themselves on the receiving end of a fate feared more than death by most criminals: Bankruptcy. Obviously, they’ve been able to pay for support, pay the troops, and buy their lifestyles, and now that’s all changed, definitely for years to come. The country won’t be able to generate any revenue. The cyclone has done billions of dollars worth of damage, far more than Burma can afford to rebuild. The generals have run out of time, they’ll run out of money pretty quickly, and they’ll soon be run out of power. This ill wind may have blown future generations of Burmese a lot of good.