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article imageBatten Down The Hatches For The 2008 Hurricane Season Ride

By Nikki Weingartner     Apr 10, 2008 in Environment
The Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team has upgraded their 2008 season prediction to an 'above-average' season, with fifteen named storms being called for this year. Current Atlantic conditions and trends help create the forecast.
Colorado State University forecasted the 2008 hurricane season starting June 1st through November 30th, predicting it to be an above average season. The forecast team, headed by 25-year seasoned hurricane veteran, William Gray, predicted fifteen named storms, this year, with eight becoming hurricanes and four expected to develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds 111 mph or greater.
According to the report
a long-term average hurricane season consists of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
Phil Klotzbach’s prediction, who is also part of the hurricane, forecast team at Colorado State, showed the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in the United States to be about 70 percent, with East Coast and Gulf Coast landfall both at around 45 percent.
Also at increased risk this season is the Caribbean.
Long-term averages for a United States landing is normally at 52 percent; East Coast landing at 31 percent; Gulf Coast at 30 percent.
This year’s predicted season is around 165 percent of the average season, compared to the 2005 season that spawned hurricane Katrina, which was 275 percent of the average season.
The forecast team believes that the high numbers of cyclone activity associated with the 2004 and 2005 seasons were unique but fell within normal ranges of probability forecasting.
Conditions responsible for the above average probability this hurricane season forecast are due to a combination of factors, including the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the weaker than normal trade winds in the Azores. Those two factors are historically present prior to very active seasons.
Add the favorable conditions to the weak La Nina conditions, and the probability for more hurricanes moves closer to the “1”.
Other years where pre-season conditions existed were 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000.
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray……2008 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2008
(1950-2000 Averages in parenthesis)
Named Storms 15 (9.6)*
Named Storm Days 80 (49.1)
Hurricanes 8 (5.9)
Hurricane Days 40 (24.5)
Intense Hurricanes 4 (2.3)
Intense Hurricane Days 9 (5.0)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160 (100%)
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.
Click here for the entire 2008 forecast.
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