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Bet On The Outcome Of News Stories On Hubdub.com

By Angelique van Engelen     Mar 27, 2008 in Internet
Hubdub is a new prediction site that claims it´s of great use for news editors. People can vote on the likely outcome of news stories and editors are invited to include the expectations in their coverage.
Will Obama Drop Out Of The Race Before 30th April? is today's top question that dominates the main Hubdub.com page. The site was launched just over a month ago at the DEMO expo.
The site's CEO Nigel Eccles, says he aims to be a hybrid between eBay, and an average news site. He told the Guardian that there’s currently little competition but that he expects that to change within 3-6 months.
How it works is that visitors can bet on the outcome of news stories in various categories, including politics, sports entertainment and international affairs. Every participant bets fake amounts of the $1000 cyber wager that Hubdub hands out to registrants. The visitors field about 400 questions per week which are betted on by over 2,200 people.
The site is run from Edinburgh, the UK, but it attracts many North American keen on betting on the election race, which proves a "more liquid and active market".
Eccles advises editors on how to cite the polling predictions, saying that while Hubdub is still a young service improving the accuracy of its forecasts, similar prediction markets (both play and real money) have found a very strong relationship between the forecast chances and reality. “When quoting one of our forecasts, the correct terminology is to describe the percentage as a "percent chance" or "probability", not what a percentage of our users think, as this is not what is measured. ‘Hubdub is forecasting that Obama has a 67% chance of getting the nomination’ is correct, whereas ‘67% of Hubdub users forecast that Obama will win the nomination’”
Hubdub has been profiled in various news media, including the Guardian, Zdnet, and Mashable.
Disclosure: Angelique van Engelen writes reportwitters.com a blog about Twitter and journalism.
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