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Tuesday may have been an Obama win, rather than a tie

By Thespian     Feb 6, 2008 in Politics
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) passed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in network tallies of the number of delegates the candidates racked up last night. The Obama camp now projects topping Clinton by 13 delegates, 847 to 834. -- reports that by the Obama campaign's count, they have a win not only in states for super Tuesday, but in delegates as well.
(full disclosure - this citizen journalist is an Obama supporter, and voted for him yesterday)
After the dust settles, if this count holds up, it will be huge for the Obama campaign.
My expectation yesterday was that this would basically be a toss-up, with Clinton getting a slight edge, and that seems to be what was assumed this morning. Major news sources predicted that Clinton would get a few more delegates total, and Obama would take more states.
The country has had over a decade to get to know Clinton and decide for or against her. As more people get to know Obama, they seem to be coming around to him. The momentum and time seem to be on his side. The upcoming primaries and caucuses are predicted to favor him, and this kind of momentum can only help.
So now, both candidates are pretty much tied on pledged electors, with the difference being almost entirely super-delegates[wikipedia]. Super-delegates, however, can change their mind any time before the convention.
Either one of them still needs 2025 delegates total for the nomination, so they are only about a third of the way there. In other words, the difference between them right now right now [cnn] (818-Clinton to 730 Obama) is only about 4% of the total they both need to get the nomination. If the Obama-campaign numbers predicted above materialize (847 Obama to 834 Clinton) we have a statistical tie.
This is far from over.
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