As rumors swirl about the possible end to the ongoing writer's strike in Hollywood, a sober possibility has been offered for the writer's future: less work, less respect, and more hostility.
Over the weekend, there was
renewed hope reported in the labor dispute which has halted production of scores of popular television series, stalled development of feature films, and "
created bitter divisions within the entertainment world."
Yet even as some light appears at the end of the Writer's Strike tunnel, there is a black cloud of doubt hanging over the near-future effects of the strike itself.
The
New York Times' Michael Cieply is
detailing some of the side effects in today's column which warns of a "Hostile Hollywood" awaiting the writers:
But even as the sides were moving toward conciliation, many of those best-versed in the writers’ business were fretting that a more complicated, and perhaps less lucrative, future lies ahead. In interviews last week, lawyers and others — some of whom were granted anonymity to avoid derailing talks — cautioned that a post-strike world appeared likely to bring more imports from foreign television, diminished spending on expensive pilot episodes and even more reality programming. And it could also mean that studios and networks, which had tightened budgets before the strike, will now take an even tougher stance in individual negotiations, and dole out fewer rich development deals than in the past.
The
Times article describes the belief of "some in Hollywood" that a similar strike in the late 80's was "followed by something of a dark age" for writers where the market was inundated with scripts written by writers without actual development deals, in the hope that a studio would purchase the script for a big-dollar pay-day.
But in the words of some writers, that strategy "shifted development risk away from the studios." Rather than contracting writers to work on scripts and develop screenplays, studios were able to chose only to pay for scripts after they were polished and ready.
Additionally, in the wake of a work stoppage - when more and more writers found themselves in need of a restored income - studios were able to craft contracts that were more restricted, and more studio-friendly.
In short, it may take a long time for the writers to realize legitimate gains from their work stoppage, and for some - in the short-term - any new agreement may feel like a step backward.
A lingering of the strike, though, is appearing to be more and more troublesome for the writers themselves. There are scores of support staff workers who are unemployed because of the strike, and the long-term effect of no new scripted television shows this year has been hotly debated, especially coming at a time when network and cable television viewing is slipping. Imported television series -
especially from Canada - have been catching the eye of studio executives, and several major production companies have already stated they will be likely to greatly reduce the number of pilots and new development they will underwrite in the coming season.
Add to that the industry -
and fiscal - impact of the cancellation of the
Golden Globe awards and the possible impact of the
Academy Awards on Feb. 24, and there is a lingering sense of an industry trapped in a death-spiral of self-destructive behavior.
To further complicate matters, the current contract betwee studios and
actors expires at the end of June. The Screen Actors Guild has remained a steady ally of the writers. If they should choose to strike, it seems likely that the writers will be expected to return the favor, and support the actors. With another possible work stopage on the horizon, the immediate future for writers seems bleak.
