An ever rising number of senior Republican Congress-persons are deciding not to run again next November. Growing public hostility towards Republican "values" coupled with a decline in campaign contributions has prompted many to get out while they can.
Many senior administration members such as Carl Rove have already abandoned the sinking ship but last Wednesday Congressman Tom Davis from Virginia became the fifth Republican in a week to announce that he will not try for reelection. That brings the total Republican bug-outs to 28, one of the highest numbers on record.
Currently there are 232 Democrats and 199 Republicans in the house. With only five Democratic seats in contested races the incumbent exodus makes it extremely unlikely that the Republicans can retake the House any time soon.
David Wasserman, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says:
The open-seat situation is so lopsided as to deny Republicans any chance of taking back the House in 2008.
Even better news for the country is that the Republicans are lagging dramatically in fund raising having raised a paltry $5 million compared to the Democrat's $35 million. To make matters worse, for the Republicans, is that they already owe $2 million in debt.
Reflecting on the tight spot that the Republicans are in Representative Tom Cole (R-Oklahoma), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee said
"It is a challenge. What this does is make it more difficult to have offensive opportunities when you have to defend what you have.
Mr Cole believes that party's chief hope is for John McCain to win the presidential nomination because his message of amnesty for illegal aliens and his plans to overhaul immigration policy so as to grant permanent legal residency for illegals, may help attract Hispanic voters.
However this plan could backfire since most Republican Congressmen run on an anti-immigrant ticket which would make voting for an anti-immigrant Representative and a pro-immigrant President at the same time very unlikely.
The departing Mr. Davis has a reputation as a fairly liberal Republican who occasionally even challenged the Bush administration which makes it very likely that his middle class suburban district will fall to the Democrats in the next election. Davis says that the prospect of serving in a minority party was one of the factors that prompted his decision to leave. He admits that things do not look too good for the GOP in the next election. He said:
There isn't any question it is going to be a tough year
In addition to Mr. Davis place the Democrats are also confident that they can win seats in Illinois New Jersey, New York and Ohio.
Movement Conservatives are very worried that the always fragile and ideologically confused Republican coalition is in danger of shattering. The collation is made up of some very strange bedfellows indeed and can be roughly divided into four camps.
One is made up of Evangelical "values voters," who favor enforcing their morality through legislation. These people are at odds with the Libertarians who oppose laws restricting personal behavior.
Then there the neocon war hawks who favor putting their foreign adventures on the national credit card and running up huge deficits. They are not only opposed by the Evangelicals, many of whom are becoming increasingly anti-war, but the traditional "Business Conservatives who favor lower taxes and a reduced deficit. Many of the Business Conservatives are also rather liberal on social issues so that makes them a poor match for the Evangelicals.
Needless to say the Democrats are not sad to see the Republicans go. Representative Christopher Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, reflecting on the Republican exodus said:
Clearly, it's a sign that they see no prospect of Republicans regaining control of the House in the near future, and in fact the trend seems to be heading in the other direction.
The good news in the Senate is that the retirement of six Republicans leaves their seats vulnerable while there are no Democratic seats opening up this cycle.
Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee summed up the changing political landscape saying:
We are still nine months away, and things just keep getting better.
This is indeed good news for America, battered and bleeding from seven years of disasters under the incompetent Bush administration. With the Democrats poised to take not only the House and Senate but the White House as well there is a very good chance that the "Reagan Revolution" has finally met the Contras and is coming to an ignominious end.
If this is the case then it will finally be "Morning in America."
I do have mixed feelings on this as I see the Democrats for the most part too liberal.
The Republicans are divided into too may factions to get united on what direction they need to take. Most people are discouraged or angry about so many things and all they want is a change.
I do have mixed feelings on this as I see the Democrats for the most part too liberal.
The Republicans are divided into too may factions to get united on what direction they need to take. Most people are discouraged or angry about so many things and all they want is a change.
individual rights and equality of opportunity. Different forms of liberalism may propose very different policies...extensive freedom of thought and speech, limitations on the power of governments, the rule of law, the free exchange of ideas, a market or mixed economy, and a transparent system of government.
If one adds:
...support some variant of the form of government known as liberal democracy, with open and fair elections, where all citizens have equal rights by law
Now we are getting somewhere.
Being a social liberal myself I would
...argue that freedom from economic as well as physical coercion is necessary for real freedom. They generally favor such positive rights as the right to vote, the right to an education, the right to health care, and the right to a living wage. Some also favor laws against discrimination in housing and employment, laws against pollution of the environment, and the provision of welfare, including unemployment benefit and housing for the homeless, all supported by progressive taxation.
If that is what one means by "liberal" then count me in!
Among many things I am against amnesty and open borders.
I am going to forward something to you that I just received and hope that you will look at it.
@Cynthia T. [Picasso]
Among many things I am against amnesty and open borders.
I am going to forward something to you that I just received and hope that you will look at it.
Like with the ANWR situation I believe worrying about the border is bass ackwards. Who are the real bad guys, the people who are desperate to feed their families and are willing to work for starvation wages or the greedy employers who would betray American workers by hiring them?
Here is how we end the problem. Leave the illegals alone (they will go home on their own) and instead put anyone who knowingly hires them in prison for at least five years and hit them with a huge fine.
And I am not talking about the poor lower level supervisor either, I mean the CEO of the company. If they don't know what is going on in their own companies then they should be in jail anyway.
Now for the fun part. Any illegal who knows that his/her boss knows that he/she is illegal can turn their boss in for a big reward and a green card. That would make bosses terrified of hiring illegals. If the boss even raise his voice to them or tell them to work harder they could put him in jail.
The same thing should apply to people who rent or sell them places to live.
Faced with no jobs and no place to live and bosses afraid to even think of hiring them everybody will go home.
Problem solved and we didn't have to screw up the ecology and drive the jaguars to extinction by building a fence.
I agree with you up to a point.
I still think for those who came here illegally they broke our laws and should not be able to stay here.
I don't see that the CEOs will be punished either. Too much big money there.
I think that I have become too much of a pessimist lately. ;-(
When I was in Nicaragua back in the 80's I lived in a peasant hut for a while that was so small I could stand in the middle of the room and touch opposite walls with my hands. There were cockroaches the size of 40 watt bulbs (that was the only light in the room so I could tell).
This gives me a fairly accurate perspective on what sort of life these people are fleeing to come here. I would like to hear people tell me that they would not do all they could do to get themselves and their families out of that situation. These are not bad people, they are desperate people.
The bad people are the ones who exploit these people's desperation in order to pay them starvation wages, violate health and safety laws and threaten them with deportation should they complain. These are the same people who are willing to see American wages depressed to Third World standards so that they can make bigger profits. This is the sort of person that deserves no sympathy at all.
I have no problem with a guest worker program, provided that the workers have all the wage, health and safety protections of American workers.
America is a nation of immigrants. Our ancestors stole the land from their ancestors. Many Americans believe that the Israelis have the right to evict the residents of the land they claim as their own after two thousand years and yet many of these same people do not feel that these people have equal rights with Israelis after less that two hundred years.
Besides, going after poor people who are only trying to survive is evil, going after rich bosses who are trying to get richer on the sweat of oppressed laborers is the path of righteousness.
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Lensman i know where you are coming from. I am not a heartless person but this country cannot take in every person who lives in deplorable conditions. Their own countries should be helping them.
We have enough of our own citizens that need some of the benefits that the illegals who do not pay any taxes receive. I just do not believe that those who come here illegally should stay.
Our country has been built up by many immigrants who came here LEGALLY not illegally.
@Cynthia T. [Picasso]
Lensman i know where you are coming from. I am not a heartless person but this country cannot take in every person who lives in deplorable conditions. Their own countries should be helping them.
We have enough of our own citizens that need some of the benefits that the illegals who do not pay any taxes receive. I just do not believe that those who come here illegally should stay.
Our country has been built up by many immigrants who came here LEGALLY not illegally.
I never said we need to take everyone. What I said is don't punish people for being desperate, punish those who would exploit them.
If there are no jobs they won't come here and then maybe their home countries will have to deal with the problem, or face a revolution. But if we keep acting as a safety valve that bleeds of the best and brightest, the ones with the get up and go to get up and come here then those revolutions, or hopefully peaceful social changes, will never take place.
Going after hungry, desperate people will never work. If there is a job they will find a way to get here to fill it but if the exploitative employer risks having his rich butt thrown in prison then he will not make the jobs available. No jobs no illegals looking for jobs. Problem solved.
The Great Wall of China was a failure at keeping people out what makes us think that a chain link fence will work any better here? This is more effective that a dozen walls and has the advantage of not making us look like hypocrites or bullies.
This is what I call "heard head and soft hearted."
No you did not say we need to take in everyone that was my statement.
I agree that the employers are the ones who should be punished. But what about those who are already here. Many are receiving benifits that our own citizens can't get.
Illegal means against the law. A law breaker or a law that has been broken.
@Cynthia T. [Picasso]
No you did not say we need to take in everyone that was my statement.
I agree that the employers are the ones who should be punished. But what about those who are already here. Many are receiving benifits that our own citizens can't get.
Illegal means against the law. A law breaker or a law that has been broken.
If we go after the bosses then those who are already here can't get jobs any better than anyone else. If the bosses will be afraid to hire them. Nor can they find a place if the land lords are afraid to rent to them. As for the few who manage to find a way to stay I am not too worried. After ALL our ancestors were all illegal aliens themselves, just ask the Indians. (;oP
All kidding aside most Americans whose ancestors have been here more than a few generations are most likely illegals as regards the US government as well.
Throughout most of the 19th and early 20th centuries WOPs, meaning anyone from any country who was "without papers," were the number one form of immigrants. Irish were the first "WOPs" and then Italians, Hungarians, Greeks, Eastern Europeans, Chinese, Japanese and very many Jews fleeing persecution in Russia and other eastern European countries.
The US didn't even have any immigration restrictions until fairly late in the 19th century. If you could get here you could get in. It is not these people's fault that they missed the opportunity to do what our ancestors did, after all their ancestors were here before ours were, we just stole their land.
The bosses are the bad ones, get them and everything else will work itself out.
To began with I have native American blood in me from my mother's side. ;o) I think it was a great or great-great grandmother who was an Osage Indian. So no guilt here. LOL
Seriously though it is true if they couldn't get jobs or housing the majority would not come here in the first place.
Many come here and commit crimes even after the first crime they commit by coming here illegally. Something does need to be done because I don't see how it can continue.
@Cynthia T. [Picasso]
To began with I have native American blood in me from my mother's side. ;o) I think it was a great or great-great grandmother who was an Osage Indian. So no guilt here. LOL
Seriously though it is true if they couldn't get jobs or housing the majority would not come here in the first place.
Many come here and commit crimes even after the first crime they commit by coming here illegally. Something does need to be done because I don't see how it can continue.
The whole "crime" thing is, I believe, WAY over played. Since most are young men their crime rate overall (as a percentage of the total group) is slightly higher at 6.8% compared with Americans at 3.5%.
However when we correct for gender and age we find that the rate for males alone is 47.6 compared with 45.5 which is within the error rate meaning that they are no more likely to commit crimes than American citizens of their age and gender are. (Table 9.1)
When one factors in what they contribute in taxes and productivity compared to what they cost, they actually work out to be more valuable to our society than American born people of their age and gender. Maybe we could keep them and deport the good for nothings who were born here. ;o)
Bottom line they work very hard, pay taxes, and get only a tiny fraction of the benefits that those taxes pay for and no Social Security. All they are asking is for the right to work their butts off for starvation wages and pay taxes that they don't benefit from.
Do some "play the system?" Of course. Do some commit crimes? Of course. They are human just like us and so flawed but the numbers are so tiny that they are insignificant compared to what they contribute.
@Cynthia T. [Picasso]
Lensman i know where you are coming from. I am not a heartless person but this country cannot take in every person who lives in deplorable conditions. Their own countries should be helping them.
We have enough of our own citizens that need some of the benefits that the illegals who do not pay any taxes receive. I just do not believe that those who come here illegally should stay.
Our country has been built up by many immigrants who came here LEGALLY not illegally.
But if the illegals were able to become legals, then they would be paying their share of taxes. Face it, they are not going to go away, so why not make them legal?
@666divine
But if the illegals were able to become legals, then they would be paying their share of taxes. Face it, they are not going to go away, so why not make them legal?
I have no problem with that at all. The solution I outline above is the most humane way to accomplish the goals of those who want them gone completely.
Either way the employers are the bad guys and should be punished. Low wages are simply stupid economics.
@lensman67
I have no problem with that at all. The solution I outline above is the most humane way to accomplish the goals of those who want them gone completely.
Either way the employers are the bad guys and should be punished. Low wages are simply stupid economics.
I agree that the employers are the real criminals but if no one is willing to hire or rent to them, and we know they aren't going back, then what choice do they have, but to become real criminals. And isn't that what Americans fear? I strongly believe that the only solution would be to make them legal.
@666divine
I agree that the employers are the real criminals but if no one is willing to hire or rent to them, and we know they aren't going back, then what choice do they have, but to become real criminals. And isn't that what Americans fear? I strongly believe that the only solution would be to make them legal.
There's a problem there now too...the US government is making it very hard for these people to become legal. It's craziness no matter what way you look at it.
@Debra Myers (skyangel)
There's a problem there now too...the US government is making it very hard for these people to become legal. It's craziness no matter what way you look at it.
Well the good news, in fact the whole message of this article, is that the "US government" is about to have a massive course correction as the Democrats take over both houses of Congress and the White House.
There will be a lot of changes once the Republicans are driven out of town and hopefully new immigration policy will be near the top of the list.
@Debra Myers (skyangel)
There's a problem there now too...the US government is making it very hard for these people to become legal. It's craziness no matter what way you look at it.
Has anyone bothered to ever Google "Immigrate to the US legally" and see what you get?! Dozens and dozens of sites set up by attorneys all willing to supply you with information - for a fee. The paperwork involved to immigrate to this country is phenomenal, and if you attempt to come legally you can find yourself waiting for 15 to 20 years in some cases.
The system is broken, and has been for a long time now. Suddenly, when the economy goes to shit, well - let's just blame it on the "illegals" - they came and took our jobs away.
So, how many of you have applied to be the housekeepers at a hotel or motel lately? How many of you wanted to work at your local car wash or climb up onto rooftops in the blazing heat and lay shingles all day? Not too many is my guess.
Yes, punish the employers for hiring people and paying them slave wages, but don't punish those desperate people, many of which have NO CLUE how to come here legally in the first place.
I looked HARD to find a legitimate website that would give me free, clear and concise information as to how to come here legally. I am of at least average intelligence, if not some what above, and I can assure you I wouldn't have the first clue as to how to start the process. Most of the sites, as I said, are set up by private individuals looking to make a buck off of those wanting to come here.
If the US is so willing to allow immigrants in legally, why can't I find an actual government hosted site that tells me how to do it? I found those that were designed to look like they were affiliated with the government, but when I read the fine print - not so.
I agree with Lensman and Divine - punish the employers, and give amnesty to those that are already here.....also, make it easier and more understandable as to how to come legally so that people don't have to live in the shadows for the rest of their lives. How would you like to live in fear forever?
Which is the lesser of two evils - coming to America to find a better life for you and your family, or living in a dirt and tin shack in the middle of nowhere starving?
I'd be slithering under the fence too - I can promise you that.
Here in Nebraska our moron of a Governor is pushing legislation that would not allow illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition reduction to our State Universities, even if they've lived in the state long enough to receive it.
Because apparently while people with cognitive reasoning skills understand that education is the silver bullet to most of the world's problems, Nebraska Republicans believe it's better to saber rattle and solve problems that aren't really problems.
@Pamela Jean (GotTheScoop)
Has anyone bothered to ever Google "Immigrate to the US legally" and see what you get?! Dozens and dozens of sites set up by attorneys all willing to supply you with information - for a fee. The paperwork involved to immigrate to this country is phenomenal, and if you attempt to come legally you can find yourself waiting for 15 to 20 years in some cases.
The system is broken, and has been for a long time now. Suddenly, when the economy goes to shit, well - let's just blame it on the "illegals" - they came and took our jobs away.
So, how many of you have applied to be the housekeepers at a hotel or motel lately? How many of you wanted to work at your local car wash or climb up onto rooftops in the blazing heat and lay shingles all day? Not too many is my guess.
Yes, punish the employers for hiring people and paying them slave wages, but don't punish those desperate people, many of which have NO CLUE how to come here legally in the first place.
I looked HARD to find a legitimate website that would give me free, clear and concise information as to how to come here legally. I am of at least average intelligence, if not some what above, and I can assure you I wouldn't have the first clue as to how to start the process. Most of the sites, as I said, are set up by private individuals looking to make a buck off of those wanting to come here.
If the US is so willing to allow immigrants in legally, why can't I find an actual government hosted site that tells me how to do it? I found those that were designed to look like they were affiliated with the government, but when I read the fine print - not so.
I agree with Lensman and Divine - punish the employers, and give amnesty to those that are already here.....also, make it easier and more understandable as to how to come legally so that people don't have to live in the shadows for the rest of their lives. How would you like to live in fear forever?
Which is the lesser of two evils - coming to America to find a better life for you and your family, or living in a dirt and tin shack in the middle of nowhere starving?
I'd be slithering under the fence too - I can promise you that.
Very well said!
America is just pleased as punch to USE these people when it is convenient but they make such a great political football when times get rough. Low life politicians then love to say "Let's blame the 'outsiders' for all our troubles."
@BoVandy
Here in Nebraska our moron of a Governor is pushing legislation that would not allow illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition reduction to our State Universities, even if they've lived in the state long enough to receive it.
Because apparently while people with cognitive reasoning skills understand that education is the silver bullet to most of the world's problems, Nebraska Republicans believe it's better to saber rattle and solve problems that aren't really problems.
Good point!
The amount that "illegals" pay into the system verses what they get back is infinitesimal. Educating them costs very little in relation to what they contribute and if they were better educated they will contribute even more.
But an apparently strange thing. I am in a time share condo complex in Fl. Every housekeeper, maintenance person and the lady who seems to be constantly mopping the floors all look like me with the exception of one black lady.
I hope the future government does something for the better, improve education and health care and become strong overall. The damages this guy has done will haunt us for a number of years. Great points by Pam.
Here is how we end the problem. Leave the illegals alone (they will go home on their own) and instead put anyone who knowingly hires them in prison for at least five years and hit them with a huge fine.
And I am not talking about the poor lower level supervisor either, I mean the CEO of the company. If they don't know what is going on in their own companies then they should be in jail anyway.
Won't work! The CEO will simply and perhaps accurately state that they did not know the lower level supervisor hired illegals. Your statement that the CEO should know what EACH supervisor of the company is doing is ridiculous.
What will you do about the illegals who come with the intent to conduct criminal activities? I realize that these individuals do not represent the majority of the illegal immigrant population!
What will you do about the individuals who come to live off of US social programs? I realize that these individuals do not represent the majority of the illegal immigrant population.
The amount that "illegals" pay into the system verses what they get back is infinitesimal. Educating them costs very little in relation to what they contribute and if they were better educated they will contribute even more.
Why should illegal immigrants receive a tuition break that law abiding US citizens cannot receive? To be more specific, your suggestion will limit the amount of funding that can provided to deserving low and middle income citizens. It will also penalize individual who live in other states.
How do they suggest the illegal immigrants document that they have lived in the state long enough to qualify?
@sumdume
Why should illegal immigrants receive a tuition break that law abiding US citizens cannot receive? To be more specific, your suggestion will limit the amount of funding that can provided to deserving low and middle income citizens. It will also penalize individual who live in other states.
How do they suggest the illegal immigrants document that they have lived in the state long enough to qualify?
I wholeheartedly agree with you sumdume.
In fact why should illegals receive anything that law abiding tax paying citizens cannot get.
@sumdume
Won't work! The CEO will simply and perhaps accurately state that they did not know the lower level supervisor hired illegals. Your statement that the CEO should know what EACH supervisor of the company is doing is ridiculous.
What will you do about the illegals who come with the intent to conduct criminal activities? I realize that these individuals do not represent the majority of the illegal immigrant population!
What will you do about the individuals who come to live off of US social programs? I realize that these individuals do not represent the majority of the illegal immigrant population.
I believe that going after the employers, rather than the employees, is more effective. They are the bad guys and not only that but by using the illegals against them, or even hinting that SOME illegals in their work force could land them in prison, then you poison the well for everybody. Even if 99% of the illegals remain loyal to their bosses (unlikely) that 1% that could put them in jail is just too dangerous to risk.
Any CEO who does not institute policies that will keep him out of jail probably couldn't have gotten to his place in the company anyway but there are very simple "chains of information" that can be mandated by law that will insure that those who seek to hire illegals will pay the penalty.
The number of illegals who manage to "live off the system" now is infinitesimal and with no one willing to rent them a place to live will drop to zero. The number of illegals who come here to commit crime will be dealt with the same as they are now, why would that change?
Right now if someone tries to give a piece of false identification to a police officer they are almost always caught within minutes. Simply make the data base available to employers and mandatory that they check. Then, if it can be proven that they exercise "due diligence" they are off the hook. In this age of terrorist we need tamper proof and forge proof national ID's.
@sumdume
Why should illegal immigrants receive a tuition break that law abiding US citizens cannot receive? To be more specific, your suggestion will limit the amount of funding that can provided to deserving low and middle income citizens. It will also penalize individual who live in other states.
How do they suggest the illegal immigrants document that they have lived in the state long enough to qualify?
Who said that law abiding US citizens cannot and should not receive the same assistance? Confining college education to only those who can pay is as stupid as confining elementary education to the rich.
Education is vital to America's ability to compete in the global market. It should be a right for everybody, not a privilege of the rich.
@lensman67
Who said that law abiding US citizens cannot and should not receive the same assistance? Confining college education to only those who can pay is as stupid as confining elementary education to the rich.
Education is vital to America's ability to compete in the global market. It should be a right for everybody, not a privilege of the rich.
It SHOULD be a right for everybody but it is not.
The parents either sacrifice or the student goes into debt that can take years to pay off. many students have to work two or three jobs during the summer to help pay for the college costs. Some students have to stay out a semester to work to have enough money for the next semester
Who said that law abiding US citizens cannot and should not receive the same assistance?
If you allocate a portion of the limited funding available to assist students attend college to illegal immigrants you will in fact deny US citizens the ability to use those funds.
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Op-Ed: For Republican Congressmen, the new battle cry is 'run away!'
